$BTC Can’t sleep after lying down. I got up and took a look at the board—sure enough, they raised rates.
The Fed’s rate hike is finally in place: 25 basis points, basically matching the 88.7% expectation in the CME data. The interest rate is now at 3.75%-4.00%. But the real “killer move” is in the dot plot. Out of 18 people, 12 think there will be another hike by year-end, and 4 think there should be two more.
I just saw the latest CME data: the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike in October is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 39.3%. The market expects another hike in October with a probability over 90%. And with the chair now changed to Waller, who’s more hawkish, it’s hard to count on him to soften and let things slide.
Look at BTC’s current chart now—from the high of 79,500 down to around 76,200, down nearly 4%. The 1-hour line is barely holding around 76,000; the RSI is already in the 70+ range. It’s a bit overbought in the short term. But on the 4-hour timeframe, the MACD has a bearish cross and is pointing down, with moving averages pressing down on price. The rebound looks very weak, and overhead between 77,000 and 78,000 is all trapped-position sell pressure.
What time are you still up to tonight? Are your trades okay?
#美联储加息是否已成定局 $BTC
The Fed’s rate hike is finally in place: 25 basis points, basically matching the 88.7% expectation in the CME data. The interest rate is now at 3.75%-4.00%. But the real “killer move” is in the dot plot. Out of 18 people, 12 think there will be another hike by year-end, and 4 think there should be two more.
I just saw the latest CME data: the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike in October is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 39.3%. The market expects another hike in October with a probability over 90%. And with the chair now changed to Waller, who’s more hawkish, it’s hard to count on him to soften and let things slide.
Look at BTC’s current chart now—from the high of 79,500 down to around 76,200, down nearly 4%. The 1-hour line is barely holding around 76,000; the RSI is already in the 70+ range. It’s a bit overbought in the short term. But on the 4-hour timeframe, the MACD has a bearish cross and is pointing down, with moving averages pressing down on price. The rebound looks very weak, and overhead between 77,000 and 78,000 is all trapped-position sell pressure.
What time are you still up to tonight? Are your trades okay?
#美联储加息是否已成定局 $BTC
