The Federal Reserve holds steady, keeping interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% for the fifth consecutive time.
But don’t be fooled by “standing pat.”
The dot plot is the real focus: 9 policymakers believe there will be at least one more rate hike by year-end, while the other 9 think rates will stay put or be cut once—split down the middle. The median directly points to a 25-basis-point hike within the year. Waller declined to submit his personal interest-rate outlook, saying he doesn’t want to be constrained by forward guidance.
Even more noteworthy is Waller’s wording. In the press conference, he mentioned “price stability” a dozen-plus times and took a tough stance that the committee is unanimously committed to suppress inflation. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury surged by 14.4 basis points on the spot. The policy statement was also trimmed to just 130 words, with much less ambiguity.
The market had priced in a 92.5% chance of a hike beforehand—yet there wasn’t one. But the dot plot tells you there is likely still one more move later this year.
Bitcoin chops around the 75,800 area. What’s really priced in isn’t whether there will be a hike this time, but whether there will be more afterward. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is pinned near 5%, the highest level since 2007—right here, it becomes a hard constraint on risk assets.
My take: Waller is framing “no change” as “ready to move at any time.” Hold the core position steady, and wait until the path shown by the dot plot becomes clear before deciding. How many of you are holding positions—what percentage are you in? Drop your number in the comments👇
#BTC走势分析 C #美联储何时降息？ 储 #沃什 #Write2Earn
But don’t be fooled by “standing pat.”
The dot plot is the real focus: 9 policymakers believe there will be at least one more rate hike by year-end, while the other 9 think rates will stay put or be cut once—split down the middle. The median directly points to a 25-basis-point hike within the year. Waller declined to submit his personal interest-rate outlook, saying he doesn’t want to be constrained by forward guidance.
Even more noteworthy is Waller’s wording. In the press conference, he mentioned “price stability” a dozen-plus times and took a tough stance that the committee is unanimously committed to suppress inflation. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury surged by 14.4 basis points on the spot. The policy statement was also trimmed to just 130 words, with much less ambiguity.
The market had priced in a 92.5% chance of a hike beforehand—yet there wasn’t one. But the dot plot tells you there is likely still one more move later this year.
Bitcoin chops around the 75,800 area. What’s really priced in isn’t whether there will be a hike this time, but whether there will be more afterward. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is pinned near 5%, the highest level since 2007—right here, it becomes a hard constraint on risk assets.
My take: Waller is framing “no change” as “ready to move at any time.” Hold the core position steady, and wait until the path shown by the dot plot becomes clear before deciding. How many of you are holding positions—what percentage are you in? Drop your number in the comments👇
#BTC走势分析 C #美联储何时降息？ 储 #沃什 #Write2Earn