93% of people are waiting for a rate hike, but tonight I’m betting on the remaining 7% instead


In a bit after 2:00 a.m., the Fed will release its interest rate decision. Currently, the market has priced in about 93% for a 25-basis-point hike. Inflation is still above target, oil prices remain elevated, and the recent data have indeed provided sufficient reasons for a hike.

But personally, I’m still betting on holding rates unchanged.

The reason isn’t entirely economic data—it’s that where Waller is positioned right now is too delicate. Trump has been publicly calling for lower rates. Even right before the meeting, he again said the U.S. should have the lowest rates in the world. If Waller takes office and immediately hikes, the pressure on the White House would be hard to imagine.

On the other hand, Waller also has to uphold the Fed’s independence. If the stance pivots dovish just because Trump demands rate cuts, it would also damage market confidence in the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation.

So I think the most interesting compromise is: keep rates steady, but sound hawkish in the commentary.

That way, you don’t give Trump a “rate hike” and you don’t give in to political pressure—while keeping room for future hikes through hawkish signaling.

As for the market: since hikes have already been priced in to 93%, a real 25BP hike may not necessarily be the biggest shock. The key is whether Waller will imply that further hikes are coming. If they unexpectedly hold the line, that would be the truly massive expectation gap, and risk assets like BTC could rebound quickly at first. But if the subsequent press conference is extremely hawkish, even after a spike higher, you should still watch out for a pullback 👀

#BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局 #加密市场