92% betting on a rate hike, but what the market is truly afraid of isn’t these 25 basis points!🔥
For this Fed rate hike, the market has already priced in most of it.
The CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a hike this week is already above 92%, and the market even believes the odds of another hike in December are above 75%.
So what’s really worth watching now isn’t “whether” they’ll hike, but two questions:
1. Can Waller secure a majority vote at the FOMC?
2. Is this hike a one-off move, or the start of a new tightening cycle?
Right now, there isn’t full consistency within the FOMC. In July, the vote to keep rates unchanged passed 9–3. Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari supported a hike at the time.
But officials like Waller and Williams have previously still leaned toward waiting, arguing that part of the current rise in inflation is due to tariffs and energy shocks, and may not be persistent.
So the most critical signal this time may actually be—how many “no” votes there are.👀
If, in the end, there are almost no dissenting votes, it suggests the committee is quickly converging on a consensus view, and the market may then reprice the likelihood of continued hikes going forward.
On the other hand, if there’s a clear split, it could mean this hike is more about responding to market expectations rather than formally kicking off a new tightening round.
For the crypto market, I’ll focus on three things:
📌 Fed statement
📌 Dot plot
📌 Waller press conference
What ultimately determines how BTC and ETH move next may not be these 25 basis points, but whether the market starts trading expectations for “higher for longer” interest rates.
The rate hike is only the first act.
The dot plot and Waller’s remarks are the main event.⚠️
#美联储加息是否已成定局 #Zcash上涨6% #比特币ETF净流出4.5亿美元 #Zcash持币者投票支持NU7升级 #比特币下跌4%
For this Fed rate hike, the market has already priced in most of it.
The CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a hike this week is already above 92%, and the market even believes the odds of another hike in December are above 75%.
So what’s really worth watching now isn’t “whether” they’ll hike, but two questions:
1. Can Waller secure a majority vote at the FOMC?
2. Is this hike a one-off move, or the start of a new tightening cycle?
Right now, there isn’t full consistency within the FOMC. In July, the vote to keep rates unchanged passed 9–3. Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari supported a hike at the time.
But officials like Waller and Williams have previously still leaned toward waiting, arguing that part of the current rise in inflation is due to tariffs and energy shocks, and may not be persistent.
So the most critical signal this time may actually be—how many “no” votes there are.👀
If, in the end, there are almost no dissenting votes, it suggests the committee is quickly converging on a consensus view, and the market may then reprice the likelihood of continued hikes going forward.
On the other hand, if there’s a clear split, it could mean this hike is more about responding to market expectations rather than formally kicking off a new tightening round.
For the crypto market, I’ll focus on three things:
📌 Fed statement
📌 Dot plot
📌 Waller press conference
What ultimately determines how BTC and ETH move next may not be these 25 basis points, but whether the market starts trading expectations for “higher for longer” interest rates.
The rate hike is only the first act.
The dot plot and Waller’s remarks are the main event.⚠️
#美联储加息是否已成定局 #Zcash上涨6% #比特币ETF净流出4.5亿美元 #Zcash持币者投票支持NU7升级 #比特币下跌4%
