Don’t just fixate on the 25bp rate hike tonight.
When the market has already priced in it with more than a 90% probability, the 25bp itself isn’t the biggest variable. What truly determines the direction for BTC and ETH is whether the dot plot and the Fed’s statements from Powell (or “Yellen”/“Vaughn,” depending on the context) hint at further hikes.
My baseline view is:
If a 25bp hike is implemented and Powell’s remarks are slightly hawkish but not enough to fully lock in the policy path ahead.
If it’s simply “a hike plus maintaining a wait-and-see stance,” the crypto market may take a first jab upward, then undergo a repair after the bearish news is fully digested.
If it’s “a hike plus an upward shift in the dot plot plus a clear signal of continued tightening,” BTC could test lower again, while high-volatility assets like ETH and UNI may magnify the downside.
Tonight, don’t chase the first candlestick. First watch the US 2-year Treasury yield and the US Dollar Index. Then see whether BTC can reclaim key levels.
What the market is truly trading has never been this particular rate hike—it’s whether the next hike will come.
$BTC
$ETH
$UNI
When the market has already priced in it with more than a 90% probability, the 25bp itself isn’t the biggest variable. What truly determines the direction for BTC and ETH is whether the dot plot and the Fed’s statements from Powell (or “Yellen”/“Vaughn,” depending on the context) hint at further hikes.
My baseline view is:
If a 25bp hike is implemented and Powell’s remarks are slightly hawkish but not enough to fully lock in the policy path ahead.
If it’s simply “a hike plus maintaining a wait-and-see stance,” the crypto market may take a first jab upward, then undergo a repair after the bearish news is fully digested.
If it’s “a hike plus an upward shift in the dot plot plus a clear signal of continued tightening,” BTC could test lower again, while high-volatility assets like ETH and UNI may magnify the downside.
Tonight, don’t chase the first candlestick. First watch the US 2-year Treasury yield and the US Dollar Index. Then see whether BTC can reclaim key levels.
What the market is truly trading has never been this particular rate hike—it’s whether the next hike will come.
$BTC
$ETH
$UNI