Tonight 02:00, four possible outcomes—one table that matches.
A (45%): Hike by 25bp. Median at 4.00%, with 1–2 votes against. 10-year yield back to 4.85–4.90%. S&P at 7,650–7,700. Gold at 4,400. BTC at 77,000–78,000.
B (40%): Hike by 25bp. Median above 4.00%, passed unanimously. 10-year yield holds at 5%. S&P at 7,500–7,450. Gold retraces to 4,278. BTC breaks below 75,000, looks for 72,000–73,000.
C (8%): No rate hike. First, violently squeeze short positions; the bond market may reverse.
D (<5%): Hike by 50bp; everything falls in the same direction.
92.5% already priced in: The threshold for a dovish surprise is low, while the threshold for a hawkish surprise is high. Don’t open new positions after 01:55. From 02:00–02:15, don’t chase the first candlestick—wait until the press conference ends.
Probabilities are personal estimates and do not constitute investment advice.$BCH
A (45%): Hike by 25bp. Median at 4.00%, with 1–2 votes against. 10-year yield back to 4.85–4.90%. S&P at 7,650–7,700. Gold at 4,400. BTC at 77,000–78,000.
B (40%): Hike by 25bp. Median above 4.00%, passed unanimously. 10-year yield holds at 5%. S&P at 7,500–7,450. Gold retraces to 4,278. BTC breaks below 75,000, looks for 72,000–73,000.
C (8%): No rate hike. First, violently squeeze short positions; the bond market may reverse.
D (<5%): Hike by 50bp; everything falls in the same direction.
92.5% already priced in: The threshold for a dovish surprise is low, while the threshold for a hawkish surprise is high. Don’t open new positions after 01:55. From 02:00–02:15, don’t chase the first candlestick—wait until the press conference ends.
Probabilities are personal estimates and do not constitute investment advice.$BCH
