What the market expects for the decision
The financial market is building strong expectations this Wednesday (September 16, 2026) for the Federal Reserve decision.
Interest rate hike: There is a greater than 90% probability (priced via the CME FedWatch) that the Fed will raise the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point, bringing the range to 3.75% to 4.00% per year.
First increase since 2023: This will be the first monetary tightening by the U.S. central bank since July 2023.
Inflation pressure: Recent CPI/PCE data and the rise in oil prices (driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Middle East/Iran) kept inflation above the 2% target.
Resilient employment: The August payroll report with 162 thousand jobs created and unemployment at 4.1% reduced the urgency of maintaining stimulus.$GOOGL.US $NVDA.US
The financial market is building strong expectations this Wednesday (September 16, 2026) for the Federal Reserve decision.
Interest rate hike: There is a greater than 90% probability (priced via the CME FedWatch) that the Fed will raise the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point, bringing the range to 3.75% to 4.00% per year.
First increase since 2023: This will be the first monetary tightening by the U.S. central bank since July 2023.
Inflation pressure: Recent CPI/PCE data and the rise in oil prices (driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Middle East/Iran) kept inflation above the 2% target.
Resilient employment: The August payroll report with 162 thousand jobs created and unemployment at 4.1% reduced the urgency of maintaining stimulus.$GOOGL.US $NVDA.US
