Tonight, what’s really important might not be a “25bp rate hike,” but whether Waller dares to take the hawkish stance all the way.
Not long after taking office, Waller needs to safeguard the Federal Reserve’s policy credibility. With core inflation still stubborn and oil prices breaking above $100, if he shows too dovish an attitude right now, the market may question the Fed’s determination to tame inflation.
So, a 25bp hike hitting the books tonight is basically in line with current market expectations; for Waller to maintain a hawkish posture in his statement and at the press conference is also likely.
But the issue is this: the U.S. debt balance has already surpassed $40 trillion, and keeping interest rates high for the long term will continuously raise the cost of fiscal financing. The price of consecutive hikes is something the Fed cannot ignore.
Therefore, my core judgment for tonight is:
The 25bp hike will be delivered. Waller will sound somewhat hawkish, but his actions will leave room for flexibility; he will emphasize inflation risks, yet won’t easily commit to further consecutive hikes.
For the crypto market, after the decision is released, there may first be sharp volatility—potentially even upward and downward “needle-like” moves. But as long as the dot plot isn’t clearly revised upward, and Waller doesn’t release signals of continuous rate hikes, this hike doesn’t necessarily have to evolve into a trend-like bearish catalyst.
What the market truly cares about isn’t whether there’s a 25bp hike tonight—it’s whether there will be another hike in December.
My baseline script: negative news is priced in → short-term shakeout → after the market resumes trading, it reprices the subsequent policy space.
Tonight’s move may not be the start of a new round of selloff, but the directional choice after expectations have been fulfilled.
Do you think it will be “sell first and rally later,” or “spike up and then pull back”?
#FederalReserve #FOMC #Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoMarket
$BTC $ETH $UNI
Not long after taking office, Waller needs to safeguard the Federal Reserve’s policy credibility. With core inflation still stubborn and oil prices breaking above $100, if he shows too dovish an attitude right now, the market may question the Fed’s determination to tame inflation.
So, a 25bp hike hitting the books tonight is basically in line with current market expectations; for Waller to maintain a hawkish posture in his statement and at the press conference is also likely.
But the issue is this: the U.S. debt balance has already surpassed $40 trillion, and keeping interest rates high for the long term will continuously raise the cost of fiscal financing. The price of consecutive hikes is something the Fed cannot ignore.
Therefore, my core judgment for tonight is:
The 25bp hike will be delivered. Waller will sound somewhat hawkish, but his actions will leave room for flexibility; he will emphasize inflation risks, yet won’t easily commit to further consecutive hikes.
For the crypto market, after the decision is released, there may first be sharp volatility—potentially even upward and downward “needle-like” moves. But as long as the dot plot isn’t clearly revised upward, and Waller doesn’t release signals of continuous rate hikes, this hike doesn’t necessarily have to evolve into a trend-like bearish catalyst.
What the market truly cares about isn’t whether there’s a 25bp hike tonight—it’s whether there will be another hike in December.
My baseline script: negative news is priced in → short-term shakeout → after the market resumes trading, it reprices the subsequent policy space.
Tonight’s move may not be the start of a new round of selloff, but the directional choice after expectations have been fulfilled.
Do you think it will be “sell first and rally later,” or “spike up and then pull back”?
#FederalReserve #FOMC #Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoMarket
$BTC $ETH $UNI