The market is now all trading the idea of the Fed hiking rates, but I’m more focused on a different question: what if they don’t hike tonight?
When over 90% of the positions are stacked in the same direction, what most easily creates big volatility is often not the expected outcome being fulfilled, but the expectation being missed.
So tonight I won’t just watch those 25 basis points. I’m more interested in how Warsh’s press conference goes—plus the first reaction from the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and BTC.
A rate hike is the obvious, priced-in move; a no-hike could be the biggest variable of the night.$BTC
#美联储加息是否已成定局
When over 90% of the positions are stacked in the same direction, what most easily creates big volatility is often not the expected outcome being fulfilled, but the expectation being missed.
So tonight I won’t just watch those 25 basis points. I’m more interested in how Warsh’s press conference goes—plus the first reaction from the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and BTC.
A rate hike is the obvious, priced-in move; a no-hike could be the biggest variable of the night.$BTC
#美联储加息是否已成定局