Encryption | Tomorrow’s Prediction | September 17
Tomorrow I’ll probably do nothing; let me put this sentence first.
Recently, the system backtested a set of data: in the top coins by 24h gain, check again after 1 hour. Out of 14 samples, 78% were fake breakouts, 22% were consolidation, and 0 were real breakouts.
First, take a look at the chart.
Today BTC is in the 74,900–77,300 range, and the whole day only fell -0.29%. But look at SOL—it dropped -1.77%, the weakest among the major coins. ETH fell -0.65%, and BNB fell -0.77%.
My take: this isn’t a trending market, it’s trash time. This kind of narrow-range chop is the easiest way to lose money—going long gets you double-killed, and going short also gets you double-killed.
Tomorrow, if BTC can hold above 75,800, the bulls may still push toward the 77,300 resistance. If it breaks below 74,900, the next stop is 0–74,000.
My own plan tonight: don’t go heavy overnight.
Top gainers list = a high-probability trap
AKE +561% in 7 days, BANK +108%, US +89%, KAITO +50%—isn’t it tempting?
Combine that with the 78% statistic above, and you should understand one thing: this kind of rally is often not the starting point—it’s the ending.
My real trading habit: when I see the top names on the gainers list, my first instinct is to ask who is unloading, not whether I can jump in. If it has already pumped more than 30%, I’d advise you not to catch the falling knife; coins just starting from a low base can be watched, but don’t chase the breakout.
What’s truly worth paying attention to is the slow bull type.
In today’s 24h slow-bull ranking, STEEM, WAXP, CROSS, and PORTAL all have scores above 70. These coins tend to rise a bit every day, have small pullbacks, have a high proportion of longs—but the price doesn’t explode.
Why are these worth watching? Because funds are quietly building positions, not pumping to distribute. From a mid-term perspective, it’s far steadier than chasing the gainers list.
Also, don’t ignore the hidden movers list: MANTRA’s volume ratio is 20.5x—pretty eye-catching. Add it to your watchlist.
Don’t ignore the news
SUI ETF is launching (Grayscale, Canary Capital), but SUI is actually down 6%—a classic case where “good news is already priced in” and becomes bad news. On the TON side, it’s cross-chain deposits from the Telegram wallet—small moves.
Next week’s US CPI data is the biggest variable in the market. If CPI beats expectations, the whole market will shake up in the short term.
Tomorrow’s strategy:
- BTC: mostly watch; consider shorting only if 74,900 breaks down
- Major coins: if SOL breaks 95.7, leave; 2,350 ETH is the key level
- Gainers list: don’t chase—just watch the show
- Slow bull type: buy in batches on dips; don’t go all-in at once
One-sentence summary: in a market with a 78% fake-breakout rate, staying alive matters far more than making quick money.
What about you? Is it time to be aggressive now, or to defend? Cast your vote in the comments:
A. Wait for CPI data and then act
B. First defend; add positions only after the direction is clear
Tomorrow I’ll probably do nothing; let me put this sentence first.
Recently, the system backtested a set of data: in the top coins by 24h gain, check again after 1 hour. Out of 14 samples, 78% were fake breakouts, 22% were consolidation, and 0 were real breakouts.
First, take a look at the chart.
Today BTC is in the 74,900–77,300 range, and the whole day only fell -0.29%. But look at SOL—it dropped -1.77%, the weakest among the major coins. ETH fell -0.65%, and BNB fell -0.77%.
My take: this isn’t a trending market, it’s trash time. This kind of narrow-range chop is the easiest way to lose money—going long gets you double-killed, and going short also gets you double-killed.
Tomorrow, if BTC can hold above 75,800, the bulls may still push toward the 77,300 resistance. If it breaks below 74,900, the next stop is 0–74,000.
My own plan tonight: don’t go heavy overnight.
Top gainers list = a high-probability trap
AKE +561% in 7 days, BANK +108%, US +89%, KAITO +50%—isn’t it tempting?
Combine that with the 78% statistic above, and you should understand one thing: this kind of rally is often not the starting point—it’s the ending.
My real trading habit: when I see the top names on the gainers list, my first instinct is to ask who is unloading, not whether I can jump in. If it has already pumped more than 30%, I’d advise you not to catch the falling knife; coins just starting from a low base can be watched, but don’t chase the breakout.
What’s truly worth paying attention to is the slow bull type.
In today’s 24h slow-bull ranking, STEEM, WAXP, CROSS, and PORTAL all have scores above 70. These coins tend to rise a bit every day, have small pullbacks, have a high proportion of longs—but the price doesn’t explode.
Why are these worth watching? Because funds are quietly building positions, not pumping to distribute. From a mid-term perspective, it’s far steadier than chasing the gainers list.
Also, don’t ignore the hidden movers list: MANTRA’s volume ratio is 20.5x—pretty eye-catching. Add it to your watchlist.
Don’t ignore the news
SUI ETF is launching (Grayscale, Canary Capital), but SUI is actually down 6%—a classic case where “good news is already priced in” and becomes bad news. On the TON side, it’s cross-chain deposits from the Telegram wallet—small moves.
Next week’s US CPI data is the biggest variable in the market. If CPI beats expectations, the whole market will shake up in the short term.
Tomorrow’s strategy:
- BTC: mostly watch; consider shorting only if 74,900 breaks down
- Major coins: if SOL breaks 95.7, leave; 2,350 ETH is the key level
- Gainers list: don’t chase—just watch the show
- Slow bull type: buy in batches on dips; don’t go all-in at once
One-sentence summary: in a market with a 78% fake-breakout rate, staying alive matters far more than making quick money.
What about you? Is it time to be aggressive now, or to defend? Cast your vote in the comments:
A. Wait for CPI data and then act
B. First defend; add positions only after the direction is clear