The market is now almost one-sided.
The probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points has already exceeded 90%, but I’m actually more focused on whether something unexpected could happen tonight—Warsh is choosing to hold steady.
It’s not that the odds of no rate hike are higher; it’s that the market’s positioning has become highly concentrated on the “rate hike” side.
In situations like this, if the outcome deviates from expectations, the market reaction is often amplified.
So what’s interesting about tonight is this:
With a rate hike, the market has already priced in a lot in advance; without a rate hike, it could become the real surprise.
Your judgment can be wrong, but when expectations are this extremely consistent, the asymmetric opportunities that appear are worth watching.$ETH
#美联储加息是否已成定局
The probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points has already exceeded 90%, but I’m actually more focused on whether something unexpected could happen tonight—Warsh is choosing to hold steady.
It’s not that the odds of no rate hike are higher; it’s that the market’s positioning has become highly concentrated on the “rate hike” side.
In situations like this, if the outcome deviates from expectations, the market reaction is often amplified.
So what’s interesting about tonight is this:
With a rate hike, the market has already priced in a lot in advance; without a rate hike, it could become the real surprise.
Your judgment can be wrong, but when expectations are this extremely consistent, the asymmetric opportunities that appear are worth watching.$ETH
#美联储加息是否已成定局