#美联储加息是否已成定局
🔥Brothers, at the Fed meeting in September, market expectations for rate hikes have clearly heated up.
At present, market pricing shows the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September has risen to nearly 90%.
Currently, the federal funds rate is 3.50%—3.75%; if the hike occurs, it would rise to 3.75%—4.00%.
Here’s the question: why has the market suddenly started pricing in “rate hikes”?
The core issue is that inflation pressure hasn’t fully disappeared—especially as energy prices have started to rise again.
In the U.S., August CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month over month.
August PPI is even higher, up 5.4% year over year; energy prices rose 4.2% month over month—so inflation pressure is still there.
Add to that the situation in the Middle East and the rise in oil prices, and whether inflation will pick up again becomes the key variable.
But it’s also not something we can say is 100% certain—economic data and comments from Fed officials could still change expectations.
For BTC, what really needs to be watched isn’t the “25 basis points” itself, but whether the Fed will continue to tighten afterward.
If it’s just a one-time hike, the market impact may be limited; but if the Fed signals a series of consecutive hikes, the pressure on risk assets will increase significantly.
So the real drama tonight isn’t just whether there’s a hike—it’s how hawkish of a signal Waller ultimately sends.
For where BTC goes next, expectations for the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and liquidity may matter more than those 25 basis points.#美联储加息是否已成定局
$BTC $ETH #btc #fomc #宏观经济
🔥Brothers, at the Fed meeting in September, market expectations for rate hikes have clearly heated up.
At present, market pricing shows the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September has risen to nearly 90%.
Currently, the federal funds rate is 3.50%—3.75%; if the hike occurs, it would rise to 3.75%—4.00%.
Here’s the question: why has the market suddenly started pricing in “rate hikes”?
The core issue is that inflation pressure hasn’t fully disappeared—especially as energy prices have started to rise again.
In the U.S., August CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month over month.
August PPI is even higher, up 5.4% year over year; energy prices rose 4.2% month over month—so inflation pressure is still there.
Add to that the situation in the Middle East and the rise in oil prices, and whether inflation will pick up again becomes the key variable.
But it’s also not something we can say is 100% certain—economic data and comments from Fed officials could still change expectations.
For BTC, what really needs to be watched isn’t the “25 basis points” itself, but whether the Fed will continue to tighten afterward.
If it’s just a one-time hike, the market impact may be limited; but if the Fed signals a series of consecutive hikes, the pressure on risk assets will increase significantly.
So the real drama tonight isn’t just whether there’s a hike—it’s how hawkish of a signal Waller ultimately sends.
For where BTC goes next, expectations for the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and liquidity may matter more than those 25 basis points.#美联储加息是否已成定局
$BTC $ETH #btc #fomc #宏观经济
