IN 4 HOURS WE WILL HAVE THE FED DECISION: MARKETS ARE PRICING THE WORST.
The Federal Reserve will set the September interest rate on Wednesday. In the markets’ forecasts, a 25-basis-point increase is already the dominant scenario, with a probability around 88%.
What matters less is the decision itself than what comes next: the statement, the new dot plot, and the tone of the FOMC. Wall Street is not united on what will happen after today’s possible tightening.
Bank of America is looking for a hike as early as September and expects Waller to vote against it.
Goldman Sachs sees little economic justification for an aggressive cycle. In the bank’s view, a large part of inflation is still elevated due to factors that tend to lose momentum. Because of that, some committee members may hesitate to signal further increases after today.
UBS forecasts two moves: September and December. In today’s vote, the bank expects dissenters Bowman and Waller.
Wells Fargo’s base case is two 25-basis-point increases over the coming months. Still, it does not rule out the “up once and done” scenario.
The whole world is watching today’s event.
The Federal Reserve will set the September interest rate on Wednesday. In the markets’ forecasts, a 25-basis-point increase is already the dominant scenario, with a probability around 88%.
What matters less is the decision itself than what comes next: the statement, the new dot plot, and the tone of the FOMC. Wall Street is not united on what will happen after today’s possible tightening.
Bank of America is looking for a hike as early as September and expects Waller to vote against it.
Goldman Sachs sees little economic justification for an aggressive cycle. In the bank’s view, a large part of inflation is still elevated due to factors that tend to lose momentum. Because of that, some committee members may hesitate to signal further increases after today.
UBS forecasts two moves: September and December. In today’s vote, the bank expects dissenters Bowman and Waller.
Wells Fargo’s base case is two 25-basis-point increases over the coming months. Still, it does not rule out the “up once and done” scenario.
The whole world is watching today’s event.
