The reason isn’t better political prediction markets, but rather the distribution: Robinhood, Coinbase, Webull, and Moomoo offer Kalshi contracts, and what they promote in the “non-sports” category is mostly BTC, ETH, and S&P markets with hourly settlement. An hourly-period contract is opened and settled within up to 60 minutes; so the same capital generates new volume every hour, whereas a Fed decision with an outcome in November accounts for just one entry.

So the value of US$ 10 billion is real, but it looks more like short-term crypto-asset derivatives wearing a different outfit than a wave of people betting on elections. Follow *open interest* (open contracts) and long-term markets to see how much of this momentum will hold.