Many people compare this cycle to the previous one, but I think in terms of their formation, these two cycles are actually quite different.
This cycle started falling from around February of this year, and it has already dropped to $60,000. Then all the way until mid-September, it’s been trading sideways between $60,000 and $80,000. Does that mean this bear market ended in February? It only lasted 4 months?
Actually, the difference in formation between this cycle and the previous one shows up in June this year. This time, it didn’t fully break down. In the previous cycle, after May, it did break down fully—it directly dropped through the level. Since these formations are different, I don’t think we can simply make a straightforward comparison.
Let’s look even further back at the two earlier cycles. Those two cycles are actually more similar to this one. They both have a feature: they complete the first major drop before March (or even earlier). After that, they trade sideways for a period and there’s no effective breakdown that pushes through. Then they continue to trade in a prolonged range before finally dropping. This is quite similar to this cycle’s pattern. So for now, I still lean more toward this kind of formation. If Bitcoin can break out effectively and hold above 8.3w, I will abandon my view.
I’ve seen many friends are afraid of missing out on this round of the market, but really it’s just that this leg up has come too quickly, which creates psychological pressure for you. Bitcoin’s future volatility will only get smaller and smaller. And right now, it’s likely that an increase of dozens of points will need a long period of consolidation to digest properly. So there’s no need to worry—market opportunities are endless ✊✊✊
In the end, I drew a figure with two charts—they look pretty ugly. I think these two patterns are the main formations of a BTC bear market.
This cycle started falling from around February of this year, and it has already dropped to $60,000. Then all the way until mid-September, it’s been trading sideways between $60,000 and $80,000. Does that mean this bear market ended in February? It only lasted 4 months?
Actually, the difference in formation between this cycle and the previous one shows up in June this year. This time, it didn’t fully break down. In the previous cycle, after May, it did break down fully—it directly dropped through the level. Since these formations are different, I don’t think we can simply make a straightforward comparison.
Let’s look even further back at the two earlier cycles. Those two cycles are actually more similar to this one. They both have a feature: they complete the first major drop before March (or even earlier). After that, they trade sideways for a period and there’s no effective breakdown that pushes through. Then they continue to trade in a prolonged range before finally dropping. This is quite similar to this cycle’s pattern. So for now, I still lean more toward this kind of formation. If Bitcoin can break out effectively and hold above 8.3w, I will abandon my view.
I’ve seen many friends are afraid of missing out on this round of the market, but really it’s just that this leg up has come too quickly, which creates psychological pressure for you. Bitcoin’s future volatility will only get smaller and smaller. And right now, it’s likely that an increase of dozens of points will need a long period of consolidation to digest properly. So there’s no need to worry—market opportunities are endless ✊✊✊
In the end, I drew a figure with two charts—they look pretty ugly. I think these two patterns are the main formations of a BTC bear market.
