The market is panicking due to the upcoming interest rate hike, but in my view, most of these expectations have already been priced in.

When over 90% of the market has already predicted a 25 bps increase, that decision itself may no longer be a surprise factor.

What’s worth paying attention to is what the Fed will say next. 👀

I’m focusing on tracking 3 factors:

📌 1. Dot Plot – Will the Fed raise rates further?

Is this rate increase a one-off move or just the starting point for the next tightening cycle?

The policy direction in the coming period may be more important than the 25 bps increase itself.

📌 2. FOMC voting record

How many members support continuing to tighten? The signal from the vote will help me better gauge how “hawkish” the Fed is internally.

📌 3. FOMC press conference

Rising oil prices can add pressure to inflation. But what matters is how the Fed assesses this risk.

If the message suggests inflation is only temporarily affected and policy may become less tight, the market may react positively.

Conversely, if the Fed signals that it needs to continue raising interest rates, pressure on BTC and other risk assets may increase.

⚠️ How I am managing capital right now:

I keep my exposure to the market low, and I am not in a hurry to open new positions until there are clear signals.

• Do not FOMO into market fluctuations after Fed news.

• Do not use leverage excessively.

• Always determine your stop-loss level before entering a trade.

• Only increase positions when the market confirms the scenario.

During periods of high volatility, preserving capital is more important than trying to catch every price movement. Let the market provide signals, instead of letting emotions decide for you.