#美联储加息是否已成定局 Most likely they will increase, and it’s 25 basis points. They’ll do it in one move and then stop; or it’s the starting point for a new round of rate hikes. What we’re watching tonight isn’t the number—it’s the dot plot and the press conference.
Will they raise rates?
Yes. August core CPI month-on-month was 0.3%, and combined with oil prices and geopolitical factors, near-term inflation is back on the rise. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has already climbed above 5%, and futures and expectation markets have priced in an 85% to 90% chance of a rate hike. At this level, if they hold steady, it effectively tells the market it can ignore “hotter-than-expected” data—which is too costly. A more reasonable path is: first hike by 25bp, raising the federal funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This would be the first rate hike since mid-2023. The market has already partially priced it in, so the decision itself may not necessarily trigger a new low; the surprise would come from the guidance.
Once, or a starting point?
My leaning is: hike once, but it can’t be treated as “they’re done.”
Let’s separate the arguments.
The case for “just this one”: year-over-year core is actually easing; employment hasn’t gotten so overheated that consecutive hikes are required. Oil prices and the impact from the Middle East look more like a supply shock. If they hammer demand with high interest rates, it hurts growth, and it doesn’t necessarily keep oil prices down. If the statement is framed as “calibration in response to the recent inflation rebound,” then in the dot plot at end-2026 they would only add this one hike. The market would trade it as a “dovish hike.” Bitcoin and risk assets might even sell off first and then buy back.
The case for “this is the starting point”: the break above 5% in the 10-year yield shows the bond market is already pricing in tighter policy. If the dot plot revises the median estimates for end-2026 and 2027 higher, or if the press conference emphasizes that “inflation is not under control and action will be taken if needed,” that would be the green light to a new round of tightening. Crypto would feel more pain: higher real yields make non-yielding assets harder to hold, and altcoins would likely fall before BTC.
In one sentence:
They’ll most likely hike 25bp this week. Whether it becomes a cycle of hikes depends on whether they frame this move as “correction” or as “reopening the rate-hike channel.” The former can be repaired in the short run; the latter is the real risk. On positioning, ahead of and around the decision it’s suitable to reduce leverage, and then assess the direction once the guidance is finalized.
Will they raise rates?
Yes. August core CPI month-on-month was 0.3%, and combined with oil prices and geopolitical factors, near-term inflation is back on the rise. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has already climbed above 5%, and futures and expectation markets have priced in an 85% to 90% chance of a rate hike. At this level, if they hold steady, it effectively tells the market it can ignore “hotter-than-expected” data—which is too costly. A more reasonable path is: first hike by 25bp, raising the federal funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This would be the first rate hike since mid-2023. The market has already partially priced it in, so the decision itself may not necessarily trigger a new low; the surprise would come from the guidance.
Once, or a starting point?
My leaning is: hike once, but it can’t be treated as “they’re done.”
Let’s separate the arguments.
The case for “just this one”: year-over-year core is actually easing; employment hasn’t gotten so overheated that consecutive hikes are required. Oil prices and the impact from the Middle East look more like a supply shock. If they hammer demand with high interest rates, it hurts growth, and it doesn’t necessarily keep oil prices down. If the statement is framed as “calibration in response to the recent inflation rebound,” then in the dot plot at end-2026 they would only add this one hike. The market would trade it as a “dovish hike.” Bitcoin and risk assets might even sell off first and then buy back.
The case for “this is the starting point”: the break above 5% in the 10-year yield shows the bond market is already pricing in tighter policy. If the dot plot revises the median estimates for end-2026 and 2027 higher, or if the press conference emphasizes that “inflation is not under control and action will be taken if needed,” that would be the green light to a new round of tightening. Crypto would feel more pain: higher real yields make non-yielding assets harder to hold, and altcoins would likely fall before BTC.
In one sentence:
They’ll most likely hike 25bp this week. Whether it becomes a cycle of hikes depends on whether they frame this move as “correction” or as “reopening the rate-hike channel.” The former can be repaired in the short run; the latter is the real risk. On positioning, ahead of and around the decision it’s suitable to reduce leverage, and then assess the direction once the guidance is finalized.