$BTC ♟️ Two Paths Before the Event
📆 Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. retail sales will be released. Tomorrow at 02:00 is the Fed decision, and at 02:30 there’s also a press conference. As of the verification of this quote, nothing has been published yet.
🧮 BTC rose by about 0.64% between 16:00 and 20:00, but open interest dropped by about 0.75%. Price rebounds alongside shrinking positions, which is not enough to confirm sustained fresh buying for now.
The pullback after breaking above 76,200 also suggests the direction before the data is not firmly established.
↗️ What I care about more is the dip-and-recovery after the release. For this round, I’m staying neutral: no new entry zone, and I won’t pre-fill a stop-loss or take-profit.
The levels to verify are very clear:
Support 75,308.40 / 74,909.40, corresponding to the afternoon and early-morning lows. Resistance 76,275.40 / 76,350—76,551, corresponding to the latest 15-minute high and the older structure.
The missing evidence is the real trading reaction after the news. Simply providing an entry price that looks especially precise can’t fill that gap.
⏸️ At 20:45, watch the first news-driven candlestick. At 21:00, check the hourly close. If the original structure is broken, it won’t automatically carry over the mid-day plan.
The most important thing tonight is to leave room for execution: even with stop-losses set very clearly, during violent volatility slippage can still happen.
📆 Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. retail sales will be released. Tomorrow at 02:00 is the Fed decision, and at 02:30 there’s also a press conference. As of the verification of this quote, nothing has been published yet.
🧮 BTC rose by about 0.64% between 16:00 and 20:00, but open interest dropped by about 0.75%. Price rebounds alongside shrinking positions, which is not enough to confirm sustained fresh buying for now.
The pullback after breaking above 76,200 also suggests the direction before the data is not firmly established.
↗️ What I care about more is the dip-and-recovery after the release. For this round, I’m staying neutral: no new entry zone, and I won’t pre-fill a stop-loss or take-profit.
The levels to verify are very clear:
Support 75,308.40 / 74,909.40, corresponding to the afternoon and early-morning lows. Resistance 76,275.40 / 76,350—76,551, corresponding to the latest 15-minute high and the older structure.
The missing evidence is the real trading reaction after the news. Simply providing an entry price that looks especially precise can’t fill that gap.
⏸️ At 20:45, watch the first news-driven candlestick. At 21:00, check the hourly close. If the original structure is broken, it won’t automatically carry over the mid-day plan.
The most important thing tonight is to leave room for execution: even with stop-losses set very clearly, during violent volatility slippage can still happen.