According to the latest data from the CME “FedWatch” tool as of September 16, 2026, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in this meeting is expected to be about 92.4%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is only 7.6%.
Probability data from different sources
Apart from CME data, other market indicators also point to similar expectations:
· Interest rate swap contracts show that traders believe there is about a 94% probability that the Fed will raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points.
· Some reports mention that the CME FedWatch probability has exceeded 93%, up sharply from a week ago.
Future rate-hike expectations (through October)
Market expectations for the policy path in October are also present:
· Probability of keeping rates unchanged: 4%
· Probability of cumulative 25 basis points of rate hikes: 52%
· Probability of cumulative 50 basis points of rate hikes: 44%
Background and market focus
This FOMC meeting is the first rate-setting meeting after Kevin Warsh took office as Chair of the Federal Reserve, and it is also the first time since 2023 that the Fed might potentially press the “rate-hike button.” Market attention is no longer only on whether the Fed will raise rates this time (which has already been highly priced in), but also on the Fed’s subsequent policy guidance—specifically whether the dot plot will indicate additional rate-hike rounds, and whether Warsh’s wording in the press conference will lean hawkish.
All of the probability data above comes from market tools such as the CME “FedWatch,” reflecting market pricing rather than official Fed forecasts. The actual decision should be based on the FOMC statement to be released at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17.
Probability data from different sources
Apart from CME data, other market indicators also point to similar expectations:
· Interest rate swap contracts show that traders believe there is about a 94% probability that the Fed will raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points.
· Some reports mention that the CME FedWatch probability has exceeded 93%, up sharply from a week ago.
Future rate-hike expectations (through October)
Market expectations for the policy path in October are also present:
· Probability of keeping rates unchanged: 4%
· Probability of cumulative 25 basis points of rate hikes: 52%
· Probability of cumulative 50 basis points of rate hikes: 44%
Background and market focus
This FOMC meeting is the first rate-setting meeting after Kevin Warsh took office as Chair of the Federal Reserve, and it is also the first time since 2023 that the Fed might potentially press the “rate-hike button.” Market attention is no longer only on whether the Fed will raise rates this time (which has already been highly priced in), but also on the Fed’s subsequent policy guidance—specifically whether the dot plot will indicate additional rate-hike rounds, and whether Warsh’s wording in the press conference will lean hawkish.
All of the probability data above comes from market tools such as the CME “FedWatch,” reflecting market pricing rather than official Fed forecasts. The actual decision should be based on the FOMC statement to be released at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17.