$BTC
Tonight, the Fed’s 25-basis-point move—what Bitcoin is really afraid of is not the rate hike
Right now, everyone in the market is asking one question:
Will the Fed raise rates tonight or not?
To be honest, that’s not the main point anymore.
As of September 16, the market has already priced in more than 90% for this 25-basis-point hike, and this is the first rate hike that the market has expected since July 2023.
What really makes people nervous is what comes next.
Inflation is still above 3%, oil prices have been pushed toward around $100 due to geopolitical developments, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has also moved back above 5%. When you put these factors together, it’s definitely not that easy for the Fed to “let go.”
So tonight, I’m not watching the 25-basis-point number.
Is this hike a single shot and then done, or are they tightening again and essentially restarting the cycle?
If they only raise by 25 basis points and then tell the market to watch the data going forward, Bitcoin could potentially get hammered first—but then also see a quick snapback.
However, if the wording is clearly more hawkish, or even suggests that more hikes could still happen by year-end, that would be troublesome.
Because Bitcoin itself isn’t in a comfortable spot today.
The CLARITY Act hasn’t passed, and Bitcoin has once again fallen to around $75,000. Now both macro and regulatory pressures are weighing down together.
So don’t be scared just by the words “a 25-basis-point hike.”
What truly determines tonight’s direction is whether the Fed wants the market to be afraid just once, or to be afraid for a stretch of time.
At 2 a.m., the answer will be revealed.
Tonight, the Fed’s 25-basis-point move—what Bitcoin is really afraid of is not the rate hike
Right now, everyone in the market is asking one question:
Will the Fed raise rates tonight or not?
To be honest, that’s not the main point anymore.
As of September 16, the market has already priced in more than 90% for this 25-basis-point hike, and this is the first rate hike that the market has expected since July 2023.
What really makes people nervous is what comes next.
Inflation is still above 3%, oil prices have been pushed toward around $100 due to geopolitical developments, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has also moved back above 5%. When you put these factors together, it’s definitely not that easy for the Fed to “let go.”
So tonight, I’m not watching the 25-basis-point number.
Is this hike a single shot and then done, or are they tightening again and essentially restarting the cycle?
If they only raise by 25 basis points and then tell the market to watch the data going forward, Bitcoin could potentially get hammered first—but then also see a quick snapback.
However, if the wording is clearly more hawkish, or even suggests that more hikes could still happen by year-end, that would be troublesome.
Because Bitcoin itself isn’t in a comfortable spot today.
The CLARITY Act hasn’t passed, and Bitcoin has once again fallen to around $75,000. Now both macro and regulatory pressures are weighing down together.
So don’t be scared just by the words “a 25-basis-point hike.”
What truly determines tonight’s direction is whether the Fed wants the market to be afraid just once, or to be afraid for a stretch of time.
At 2 a.m., the answer will be revealed.
