#美联储加息是否已成定局 $BTC $ETH
August core CPI month-on-month rose 0.3%. Market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike this week have already reached nearly 90%. Based on current pricing, this week’s hike has largely been priced in. What’s truly worth watching is not whether the Fed will “raise rates,” but whether there will be a “next time” after this one.
My view is that this looks more like the final hike before a “hawkish pause,” rather than the start of a new tightening cycle. Core CPI is still rising, but the month-on-month increase of 0.3% shows no sign of accelerating, suggesting inflation pressure is easing at the margin. The Fed will most likely enter an observation period after this hike, rather than continuing consecutive hikes.
On the market impact, my stance is neutral with a slightly bullish tilt:
BTC: After the rate hike is implemented, if the Fed signals “subsequent watchfulness,” the US dollar index could fall, which would be positive for BTC. But in the short term, watch out for a “good news priced in” pullback—be cautious about chasing gains.
Tech stocks: High interest rates suppress the valuation of growth stocks, but this hike has already been priced in. The real driver will be the wording in the post-meeting statement. If the tone is more dovish, tech stocks may have room to rebound.
Gold: Expectations that real yields have peaked will intensify after the hike. Gold has medium-term support. In the short term, it could dip first and then stabilize. I don’t recommend making heavy bets on gold before the decision.
My strategy: Keep positions light before the decision, then decide on adding exposure once the statement is released. I will build BTC and gold positions in batches, while I’ll wait and see with tech stocks.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
August core CPI month-on-month rose 0.3%. Market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike this week have already reached nearly 90%. Based on current pricing, this week’s hike has largely been priced in. What’s truly worth watching is not whether the Fed will “raise rates,” but whether there will be a “next time” after this one.
My view is that this looks more like the final hike before a “hawkish pause,” rather than the start of a new tightening cycle. Core CPI is still rising, but the month-on-month increase of 0.3% shows no sign of accelerating, suggesting inflation pressure is easing at the margin. The Fed will most likely enter an observation period after this hike, rather than continuing consecutive hikes.
On the market impact, my stance is neutral with a slightly bullish tilt:
BTC: After the rate hike is implemented, if the Fed signals “subsequent watchfulness,” the US dollar index could fall, which would be positive for BTC. But in the short term, watch out for a “good news priced in” pullback—be cautious about chasing gains.
Tech stocks: High interest rates suppress the valuation of growth stocks, but this hike has already been priced in. The real driver will be the wording in the post-meeting statement. If the tone is more dovish, tech stocks may have room to rebound.
Gold: Expectations that real yields have peaked will intensify after the hike. Gold has medium-term support. In the short term, it could dip first and then stabilize. I don’t recommend making heavy bets on gold before the decision.
My strategy: Keep positions light before the decision, then decide on adding exposure once the statement is released. I will build BTC and gold positions in batches, while I’ll wait and see with tech stocks.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.