BTC rebounds to $76,190. Tonight’s real direction hinges on the dot plot

The Fed’s interest rate decision hasn’t been released yet, but BTC has rebounded first from around $75,000 to about $76,190. The intraday high is $77,123 and the low is $75,039. This rebound suggests the market is betting on “bad news being priced in,” but it hasn’t fully committed yet.

Tonight at 2:00 a.m. Eastern Time, the interest rate decision will be announced; 2:30 a.m. is when the press conference will take place. The market has already priced in the rate-hike expectations. What could truly change the direction is the dot plot and the Chair’s hints regarding the next meeting.

Watch three reactions:

First, whether after the decision BTC can hold above $76,700;
Second, when the US dollar and Treasury yields rise, whether $75,000 will be tested again;
Third, whether ETH, BNB, and other high-beta assets show even more aggressive volatility.

The impact of the CLARITY Act has already run its first course; tonight is more like macro repricing. Do you think the Fed will give the market a rebound window, or push volatility further downward?

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