🔥Rate hikes are already set in stone—watch for short opportunities in the crude oil supply zone
Crude oil macro + technical convergence | Market pricing a 25bp rate hike; overhead resistance at 107–111, high-altitude (short) outlook
$CL
The market has already fully priced in this 25-bp rate hike. The key drivers are energy inflation combined with hawkish remarks from officials—this is the first rate-hike restart in years.
Standard logic: A rate hike strengthens the US dollar and suppresses economic demand, which is bearish for oil. Historically, during rapid rate-hike cycles, commodities have generally seen pullbacks.
Technical view: Since July, a strong rebound has broken through the descending trendline. The current momentum has exited the ending leg, forming a bearish harmonic PRZ, which is further reinforced by resistance from the supply zone.
✅Overhead resistance range: 107–111, the area for short setups
✅First support below: 88–90—pay close attention to how buy-side reacts
✅Strong support: 81
Crude oil macro + technical convergence | Market pricing a 25bp rate hike; overhead resistance at 107–111, high-altitude (short) outlook
$CL
The market has already fully priced in this 25-bp rate hike. The key drivers are energy inflation combined with hawkish remarks from officials—this is the first rate-hike restart in years.
Standard logic: A rate hike strengthens the US dollar and suppresses economic demand, which is bearish for oil. Historically, during rapid rate-hike cycles, commodities have generally seen pullbacks.
Technical view: Since July, a strong rebound has broken through the descending trendline. The current momentum has exited the ending leg, forming a bearish harmonic PRZ, which is further reinforced by resistance from the supply zone.
✅Overhead resistance range: 107–111, the area for short setups
✅First support below: 88–90—pay close attention to how buy-side reacts
✅Strong support: 81
