【FOMC Tonight—What You Really Need to Listen To Is What Waller Will Say】
The Fed will announce its decision in the early hours, and BTC’s moves tonight are likely to be anything but small.
But when trading, you can’t just stare at one line:
“Rate hikes = down, rate cuts = up.”
What the market is trading now isn’t just the outcome—
it’s whether the result comes in beyond expectations.
Tonight, focus on three things:
① Rates decision
Whether the outcome matches market expectations.
② Waller’s remarks
Especially his stance on inflation, oil prices, and the subsequent interest-rate path.
③ BTC’s market reaction
This is the most crucial part.
If the news is hawkish but BTC can’t drop—
or even quickly recovers its losses—
that suggests the shorts may have already traded ahead of the news.
On the other hand, if the news is dovish but BTC can’t rally,
then be careful about buying-the-news (good news being sold off).
So don’t rush to guess long or short tonight.
News is the catalyst; price is the answer.
Before the FOMC, watch expectations.
After the FOMC, watch the reaction.
In the early-hours move—
do you think BTC will first sell off and then rebound,
or will it go straight in one direction?
The Fed will announce its decision in the early hours, and BTC’s moves tonight are likely to be anything but small.
But when trading, you can’t just stare at one line:
“Rate hikes = down, rate cuts = up.”
What the market is trading now isn’t just the outcome—
it’s whether the result comes in beyond expectations.
Tonight, focus on three things:
① Rates decision
Whether the outcome matches market expectations.
② Waller’s remarks
Especially his stance on inflation, oil prices, and the subsequent interest-rate path.
③ BTC’s market reaction
This is the most crucial part.
If the news is hawkish but BTC can’t drop—
or even quickly recovers its losses—
that suggests the shorts may have already traded ahead of the news.
On the other hand, if the news is dovish but BTC can’t rally,
then be careful about buying-the-news (good news being sold off).
So don’t rush to guess long or short tonight.
News is the catalyst; price is the answer.
Before the FOMC, watch expectations.
After the FOMC, watch the reaction.
In the early-hours move—
do you think BTC will first sell off and then rebound,
or will it go straight in one direction?
