Clarity Bill isn't dead yet.
Motion to reconsider = still on the table. If leadership reschedules, it means a deal was likely struck behind closed doors. They don't bring it back without the votes lined up.
Two windows:
• Window 1: Before October recess
• Window 2: Post-midterms until Jan 3rd
Short windows, but a fat tail event if it happens.
Not saying it will—but IF news drops that they're voting again, that's a massive signal. Market hasn't priced this tail risk yet.
Watch the schedule.
Motion to reconsider = still on the table. If leadership reschedules, it means a deal was likely struck behind closed doors. They don't bring it back without the votes lined up.
Two windows:
• Window 1: Before October recess
• Window 2: Post-midterms until Jan 3rd
Short windows, but a fat tail event if it happens.
Not saying it will—but IF news drops that they're voting again, that's a massive signal. Market hasn't priced this tail risk yet.
Watch the schedule.