At 2:00 a.m. tonight, the Fed’s interest rate decision will be finalized— is it a waterfall drop, or is it fully priced in? Here’s what Jingyi thinks:
The probability of a rate hike is above 90%+. With U.S. Treasuries breaking above 5%, the hike itself isn’t the focus anymore. The key focus is the dot plot—Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank both expect it to be more hawkish, and the dot plot may show two more rate hikes within the year. Jingyi believes that what truly crushes the market isn’t the rate hike itself, but the simultaneous fall of two “swords”: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking through 5%, and oil prices rising above $100.
BTC has already dropped to around 750. Add to that the fact that the “Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act” was rejected by the Senate, meaning the regulatory vacuum period will extend at least until next year. The rate hike “landing” is just the prelude—the wording in the press conference that follows will be the decisive factor.
From the current market structure: big BTC (4-hour chart) continues to trend downward. The MACD’s two lines are pointing downward, bearish momentum is being released, and price breaks support one after another—hitting the low around 749. At the time of the Fed decision, keep the same mindset: prioritize taking short positions under rebound pressure, and don’t chase shorts. If the hike lands and the statements remain hawkish, it will continue to push lower. If it releases dovish signals, there will be a short-term bounce and correction.
For the cautious players, Jingyi advises: hold off tonight, and wait until the news lands before acting.
Trading suggestions:
BTC: On a rebound to 768–779, take a light-position short. If it rebounds, you can add to the position. Targets on the downside: 750–730–715, and then the 70,000 mark.
ETH: On a rebound to 2455–2535, take a light-position short. If it rebounds, you can add to the position. Targets on the downside: 2495–2360–2270.
This is for reference only. Once again: control your “little hands.” If you really can’t, then control your position size.
$BTC $ETH #美参议院否决CLARITY法案 #比特币跌至7.6万美元
The probability of a rate hike is above 90%+. With U.S. Treasuries breaking above 5%, the hike itself isn’t the focus anymore. The key focus is the dot plot—Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank both expect it to be more hawkish, and the dot plot may show two more rate hikes within the year. Jingyi believes that what truly crushes the market isn’t the rate hike itself, but the simultaneous fall of two “swords”: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking through 5%, and oil prices rising above $100.
BTC has already dropped to around 750. Add to that the fact that the “Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act” was rejected by the Senate, meaning the regulatory vacuum period will extend at least until next year. The rate hike “landing” is just the prelude—the wording in the press conference that follows will be the decisive factor.
From the current market structure: big BTC (4-hour chart) continues to trend downward. The MACD’s two lines are pointing downward, bearish momentum is being released, and price breaks support one after another—hitting the low around 749. At the time of the Fed decision, keep the same mindset: prioritize taking short positions under rebound pressure, and don’t chase shorts. If the hike lands and the statements remain hawkish, it will continue to push lower. If it releases dovish signals, there will be a short-term bounce and correction.
For the cautious players, Jingyi advises: hold off tonight, and wait until the news lands before acting.
Trading suggestions:
BTC: On a rebound to 768–779, take a light-position short. If it rebounds, you can add to the position. Targets on the downside: 750–730–715, and then the 70,000 mark.
ETH: On a rebound to 2455–2535, take a light-position short. If it rebounds, you can add to the position. Targets on the downside: 2495–2360–2270.
This is for reference only. Once again: control your “little hands.” If you really can’t, then control your position size.
$BTC $ETH #美参议院否决CLARITY法案 #比特币跌至7.6万美元
