#美联储加息是否已成定局
The Dilemma of Waller——Hikes are a “credibility test”; No hikes mean a “credit collapse”
Federal Reserve Chair Waller is facing the toughest decision since taking office. His hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole conference at the end of August have boxed him in: “The progress made over the past two years has been very limited. Even though this summer’s inflation readings came in better than expected, these data didn’t tell me that the underlying trend of inflation has seen a real improvement.”
Why does Waller “have to”? Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Alan Blinder said Waller’s comments “sound like he’s looking for a rationale to justify rate hikes,” and “on this point, he has already given the answer.” The founder of Inflation Insights added directly that after these remarks, it would be difficult for Waller not to support a rate hike. A Bloomberg Economics analyst further warned that if the Fed ultimately doesn’t hike, Waller’s credibility in the eyes of market participants could be damaged.
A deeper contradiction: inside the Fed, almost nobody believes a single 25-basis-point hike is enough to rein in inflation. Timiraos—often dubbed the “New Fed press agency”—wrote that once the Fed starts hiking, the signal sent is that current interest-rate levels are off course, and correcting that won’t be a one-step job. Since the 1990s, the Fed has had only one example of the “hike once and stop” approach—back in 1997.
My assessment: what Waller faces is a “credibility test.” If he doesn’t hike, the market will think his hawkish stance was just “talk.” If he hikes but suggests “only this once,” he will be viewed as being too optimistic about inflation. In either scenario, market volatility won’t be small. Given Trump’s continued pressure to cut rates, some market participants speculate that Waller may wait until after the midterm elections in mid-November before releasing further hawkish policy guidance.
Trading reference: If Waller signals a “dovish hike” (hike but hint at a pause), BTC may first fall and then stabilize. If he signals a “hawkish hike” (implying continued hikes in October), risk assets will face broad pressure.
The Dilemma of Waller——Hikes are a “credibility test”; No hikes mean a “credit collapse”
Federal Reserve Chair Waller is facing the toughest decision since taking office. His hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole conference at the end of August have boxed him in: “The progress made over the past two years has been very limited. Even though this summer’s inflation readings came in better than expected, these data didn’t tell me that the underlying trend of inflation has seen a real improvement.”
Why does Waller “have to”? Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Alan Blinder said Waller’s comments “sound like he’s looking for a rationale to justify rate hikes,” and “on this point, he has already given the answer.” The founder of Inflation Insights added directly that after these remarks, it would be difficult for Waller not to support a rate hike. A Bloomberg Economics analyst further warned that if the Fed ultimately doesn’t hike, Waller’s credibility in the eyes of market participants could be damaged.
A deeper contradiction: inside the Fed, almost nobody believes a single 25-basis-point hike is enough to rein in inflation. Timiraos—often dubbed the “New Fed press agency”—wrote that once the Fed starts hiking, the signal sent is that current interest-rate levels are off course, and correcting that won’t be a one-step job. Since the 1990s, the Fed has had only one example of the “hike once and stop” approach—back in 1997.
My assessment: what Waller faces is a “credibility test.” If he doesn’t hike, the market will think his hawkish stance was just “talk.” If he hikes but suggests “only this once,” he will be viewed as being too optimistic about inflation. In either scenario, market volatility won’t be small. Given Trump’s continued pressure to cut rates, some market participants speculate that Waller may wait until after the midterm elections in mid-November before releasing further hawkish policy guidance.
Trading reference: If Waller signals a “dovish hike” (hike but hint at a pause), BTC may first fall and then stabilize. If he signals a “hawkish hike” (implying continued hikes in October), risk assets will face broad pressure.