Before the Fed Decision: Gold, Ether, and Bitcoin Are All at Key Levels! Cautiously Bearish on the Long Run—Wait for Clarity from the Dots
📊 Key Logic in the Headlines: Focus on the “Dot Plot” and the Communication Battle
The rate hike itself has already been fully priced in by the market, so its impact on price action is limited. The real key variable is the dot plot and the remarks made by Fed Chair Kevin Waller at the press conference. Current inflation is still far above the 2% target, and core PCE has remained above 3% for multiple consecutive months—this effectively removes the “hold rates steady” option. Two scenarios worth watching:
1. Hawkish scenario: If the dot plot’s median suggests more rate hikes later this year, the U.S. dollar will strengthen and risk assets will come under pressure.
2. Dovish scenario: If it’s interpreted as a “one-time insurance-style hike,” and the wording is softer, the market may see a phase of rebound like “bad news already priced in.”
Gold around 4331: any intraday rebound is more of a technical oversold correction.
Upper resistance zone: 4400 — 4446
Lower support zone: 4275 — 4253
Short-term range: expected weak consolidation between 4275 — 4400, waiting for guidance from the Fed decision.
Ether around 2401.45 has fallen below the 2500 round-number level.
Upper resistance zone: 2487 — 2530
Lower support zone: 2357 — 2320
Short-term range: expected to trade sideways on the weaker side between 2357 — 2487.
Bitcoin around 75806.9 is barely holding the 75000 level.
Upper resistance zone: 77323 — 78500
Lower support zone: 75000 — 74909
Short-term range: expected to range between 74909 — 77323, with 75000 the final line of defense for bulls.
🧭 Long-term strategy: Cautiously bearish and wait—focus on the meeting signals
From a macro perspective, the Fed’s hawkish stance of “higher for longer” has not turned. Core inflation is still trending upward; energy prices remain elevated; the policy path is still tight—so the macro backdrop does not support risk assets to break into a large-scale rally. From a technical standpoint, all three assets are in a weak consolidation phase within a downward trend. Their overhead resistance is far greater than the rebound momentum from support, and overall they show the characteristics of “weak rebounds and a shifting downward of the center of gravity,” with no clear reversal signal yet. Until the Fed truly pivots toward easing, the timing to go long over the long run is not yet ripe. $XAU $BTC $ETH #比特币跌至7.6万美元 #美参议院否决CLARITY法案
📊 Key Logic in the Headlines: Focus on the “Dot Plot” and the Communication Battle
The rate hike itself has already been fully priced in by the market, so its impact on price action is limited. The real key variable is the dot plot and the remarks made by Fed Chair Kevin Waller at the press conference. Current inflation is still far above the 2% target, and core PCE has remained above 3% for multiple consecutive months—this effectively removes the “hold rates steady” option. Two scenarios worth watching:
1. Hawkish scenario: If the dot plot’s median suggests more rate hikes later this year, the U.S. dollar will strengthen and risk assets will come under pressure.
2. Dovish scenario: If it’s interpreted as a “one-time insurance-style hike,” and the wording is softer, the market may see a phase of rebound like “bad news already priced in.”
Gold around 4331: any intraday rebound is more of a technical oversold correction.
Upper resistance zone: 4400 — 4446
Lower support zone: 4275 — 4253
Short-term range: expected weak consolidation between 4275 — 4400, waiting for guidance from the Fed decision.
Ether around 2401.45 has fallen below the 2500 round-number level.
Upper resistance zone: 2487 — 2530
Lower support zone: 2357 — 2320
Short-term range: expected to trade sideways on the weaker side between 2357 — 2487.
Bitcoin around 75806.9 is barely holding the 75000 level.
Upper resistance zone: 77323 — 78500
Lower support zone: 75000 — 74909
Short-term range: expected to range between 74909 — 77323, with 75000 the final line of defense for bulls.
🧭 Long-term strategy: Cautiously bearish and wait—focus on the meeting signals
From a macro perspective, the Fed’s hawkish stance of “higher for longer” has not turned. Core inflation is still trending upward; energy prices remain elevated; the policy path is still tight—so the macro backdrop does not support risk assets to break into a large-scale rally. From a technical standpoint, all three assets are in a weak consolidation phase within a downward trend. Their overhead resistance is far greater than the rebound momentum from support, and overall they show the characteristics of “weak rebounds and a shifting downward of the center of gravity,” with no clear reversal signal yet. Until the Fed truly pivots toward easing, the timing to go long over the long run is not yet ripe. $XAU $BTC $ETH #比特币跌至7.6万美元 #美参议院否决CLARITY法案
