#美联储加息是否已成定局
A 92.4% rate-hike probability—the answer is already written on the face of the market
Latest CME “FedWatch” data shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September has surged to 92.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is down to just 7.6%. Only a week ago, this figure hovered around 60%. Now, the market has effectively priced in this hike almost completely.
Why is the market so confident? In August, core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, beating expectations of 0.2%—the largest increase in four months. Energy prices are the main driver— the gasoline index jumped 3.9% month over month, accounting for more than a third of the overall CPI increase. More importantly, service-sector costs are also rising: airfares were up 2.7% month over month, and hotel room prices increased 2.4%. These cannot be explained by energy price hikes alone.
My take: When the market pricing exceeds 90%, the Fed’s “not hiking” would actually create greater uncertainty. Goldman Sachs has clearly pointed out that this rate hike is not driven by solid economic logic, but rather “forced by market pricing.” The hike itself is no longer the uncertainty. The real focus is what Powell says at the press conference—or what he does not say.
Trading reference: Enter lightly before the data is released. If the hike goes through and Powell does not issue signals of consecutive hikes, BTC may stabilize after a brief dip and then rebound. If Powell unexpectedly hints that the Fed will continue hiking in October, risk assets will face systemic stress.
A 92.4% rate-hike probability—the answer is already written on the face of the market
Latest CME “FedWatch” data shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September has surged to 92.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is down to just 7.6%. Only a week ago, this figure hovered around 60%. Now, the market has effectively priced in this hike almost completely.
Why is the market so confident? In August, core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, beating expectations of 0.2%—the largest increase in four months. Energy prices are the main driver— the gasoline index jumped 3.9% month over month, accounting for more than a third of the overall CPI increase. More importantly, service-sector costs are also rising: airfares were up 2.7% month over month, and hotel room prices increased 2.4%. These cannot be explained by energy price hikes alone.
My take: When the market pricing exceeds 90%, the Fed’s “not hiking” would actually create greater uncertainty. Goldman Sachs has clearly pointed out that this rate hike is not driven by solid economic logic, but rather “forced by market pricing.” The hike itself is no longer the uncertainty. The real focus is what Powell says at the press conference—or what he does not say.
Trading reference: Enter lightly before the data is released. If the hike goes through and Powell does not issue signals of consecutive hikes, BTC may stabilize after a brief dip and then rebound. If Powell unexpectedly hints that the Fed will continue hiking in October, risk assets will face systemic stress.