Clarity hasn’t kicked in yet—tonight the Federal Reserve is the main storyline.
CoinDesk’s coverage is pretty strong: Brooks of Brookings said today was almost a “nightmare scenario” for Warsh—markets have already largely priced in a 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, and further tightening is still being priced for the rest of the year, so it will be hard for the post-meeting guidance to fully catch up.
His view is that if the post-meeting messaging is disappointing, the U.S. dollar may weaken, but long-end yields could actually rise. The article also notes that if the Fed hikes but doesn’t provide clear hawkish forward guidance, the market may price things on the assumption that “inflation isn’t satisfied yet,” so gold and $BTC may not keep getting hit after an initial dip.
The statement is scheduled for 14:00 U.S. Eastern time, with the press conference at 14:30. The focus will be on the dot plot and how Warsh describes the path.#美联储 #BTC
CoinDesk’s coverage is pretty strong: Brooks of Brookings said today was almost a “nightmare scenario” for Warsh—markets have already largely priced in a 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, and further tightening is still being priced for the rest of the year, so it will be hard for the post-meeting guidance to fully catch up.
His view is that if the post-meeting messaging is disappointing, the U.S. dollar may weaken, but long-end yields could actually rise. The article also notes that if the Fed hikes but doesn’t provide clear hawkish forward guidance, the market may price things on the assumption that “inflation isn’t satisfied yet,” so gold and $BTC may not keep getting hit after an initial dip.
The statement is scheduled for 14:00 U.S. Eastern time, with the press conference at 14:30. The focus will be on the dot plot and how Warsh describes the path.#美联储 #BTC
