Trading is something I always remind myself:

Entry is history. TP is the future.

Entry is at the price level where it has already appeared.
But the Take Profit is where the market has never committed it would reach. So instead of asking, “Will BTC definitely go up or down?”, I prefer to ask:

Which direction has a higher probability of happening?

The September FOMC is a great test for this way of thinking.

Core CPI for August rose 0.3% MoM. The market is heavily betting on the likelihood that the Fed will hike by 25bp. But if most of the expectations have already been priced in, the story is no longer as simple as:

Fed raises interest rates = Crypto falls.

What matters more is what the Fed will say about the next rounds.

📊 MY SCENARIO FOR BTC

🟢 Up: 55%

🔴 Down: 45%

If the Fed raises 25bp but signals that this is only an adjustment or a softer tone than expected, BTC could swing sharply when the news hits and then recover.

On the other hand, if the Fed raises 25bp and stays hawkish, it opens the door to a longer interest-rate-hike cycle—BTC could face stronger sell pressure.

📊 MY SCENARIO FOR ETH

🟢 Up: 52%

🔴 Down: 48%

I assess that ETH is more sensitive to risk-on/risk-off than BTC. If money flows back into crypto after the FOMC, ETH could run strongly. But if yields and the USD keep rising, ETH is also likely to be sold harder than BTC.

This is not statistical probability or certain predictions, but how I allocate probabilities across scenarios ahead of the event.

And that’s also why I don’t try to guess the very first candle after the FOMC.

I want to wait for the market to choose a direction.

If BTC/ETH absorbs bad news but can’t drop → prioritize LONG.

If the news matches expectations but price still loses support, further selling continues → prioritize SHORT.

It doesn’t matter what I think—whatever the Fed does.

Price is what pays for the trade.

Entry is just history.

TP is the future.

To go toward that future, I only choose the direction where, at the time of entry, the odds are leaning in my favor.

Trade probabilities, not conviction.

#FedRateWatch #FOMC #BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #Ethereum #Crypto #Trading