The results of last night’s clear bill agenda voting are | 无邪Infinity on Binance Square

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The results of last night’s clear bill agenda voting are already out: it did not pass, which is consistent with market expectations. But the market had already digested the downside news in advance.

So tonight, the big September rate decision is here~!
At the moment, the market has already priced in a 25-basis-point hike. What we really need to watch tonight is the probability of a second hike!

Market pricing has already reacted ahead of time. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly touched 5.04%, while the 30-year hovered around 5.34%. Last night the Nasdaq fell 0.8%, and $BTC returned to trading around the 76k area. The market is already paying for the first hike, but it hasn’t fully paid for the second one yet.

The key is tonight’s dot plot. If there are one or even two more hikes within the year, or if it even starts a new round of tightening, then it would be a major negative for the target market— the Nasdaq, tech stocks, and BTC will face the first pressure.

Let’s wait and see~!

#比特币下跌4%

无邪Infinity

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$BTC
Big pancake (BTC) was awesome last Friday. After piercing through and taking a 76K wick, it directly rebounded back to nearly 80K.

But it’s back to normal over the weekend.

Next Tuesday and Thursday at 2:00 a.m., there will be major news!

Tuesday is the key procedural vote for the “clear bill.” Currently, market expectations are that it will almost certainly fail. But if it unexpectedly passes, it would be an obvious positive catalyst for the entire crypto market.

A normal way to understand it is that the market is already pricing in these bad-news expectations in advance.

The real boss-level hurdle is Thursday at 2:00 a.m.—the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Right now, nearly 90% of the market is betting on a 25bp hike. With ongoing disruptions from war, energy prices, and the like, inflation remains stubborn—so I don’t think a simple 25bp hike is that surprising anymore.

The truly crucial part is the dot plot afterward. What the market has priced in so far is only “this time’s hike.”

If the dot plot further indicates there could be another hike within the remainder of the year in December, then the whole situation changes. It would be as if the market has to re-price “higher rates for longer,” and the hit to the crypto market would be very severe.

One more thing: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is already nearing 5%. This level is very dangerous!!!

Right now, Treasury buyers are increasingly dependent on institutions, funds, and other private investors—and these funds are price-sensitive. They are willing to buy largely because U.S. Treasuries are currently offering high returns.

This is one of the reasons why U.S. Treasuries on the order of $4 trillion can still sustain such a large buying demand.

But the problem is also here:
If the 10-year Treasury yield truly holds above 5%, that would mean the risk-free rate rises further. Corporate financing costs would keep increasing, and for a high-volatility asset like BTC, it would be extremely uncomfortable!
After all, big capital doesn’t dislike risk-free returns.

So next week, what really needs vigilance isn’t a single standalone 25bp hike. Focus more on the dot plot and the 10-year Treasury yield!

#SEC收到灰度莱特币信托转ETF申请

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