#美联储加息是否已成定局 ? I choose not to guess 😂
It’s that time of every month again—FOMC (Federal Reserve interest rate decision).
Whenever this happens, you’ll see all kinds of analysis: whether they’ll raise or cut rates, 25 bps or keep steady, whether the Fed chair is more hawkish or dovish, and whether BTC, gold, and the US stock market will go up or down.
But honestly, those usually aren’t the things I care about most when trading. 🙈
My habit has always been simple:
Price action has the final say.
Before the news is released, the market can have a hundred expectations; even after it’s released, it doesn’t mean the asset will definitely move in the direction described by textbooks.
So-called “good news” can still make price drop, and “bad news” can still lead to a rise when it hits.
Especially for major events like the FOMC—right before and after the release, you often get sudden spikes, wicks/pins, and reversals. Even if your final directional call is correct, you can still be swept out by that initial volatility.
So the most practical trading strategy I have for tonight is actually: don’t guess. 😂
If it’s $BTC , NQ $QQQB , or gold, I’ll do my best to avoid trading around the interest rate announcement and before/after the press conference—especially I won’t enter early just to gamble on a direction.
After the first round of volatility is over, once the market shows a structure I can understand again, then I’ll decide whether there’s a trading opportunity.
Making a little less for a while doesn’t matter.
I’d rather wait for the price to spell out the answer than try to guess the Fed.
Because in the end, what determines whether I hit Buy / Sell isn’t the news headline—it’s the behavior of price in the moment.
It’s that time of every month again—FOMC (Federal Reserve interest rate decision).
Whenever this happens, you’ll see all kinds of analysis: whether they’ll raise or cut rates, 25 bps or keep steady, whether the Fed chair is more hawkish or dovish, and whether BTC, gold, and the US stock market will go up or down.
But honestly, those usually aren’t the things I care about most when trading. 🙈
My habit has always been simple:
Price action has the final say.
Before the news is released, the market can have a hundred expectations; even after it’s released, it doesn’t mean the asset will definitely move in the direction described by textbooks.
So-called “good news” can still make price drop, and “bad news” can still lead to a rise when it hits.
Especially for major events like the FOMC—right before and after the release, you often get sudden spikes, wicks/pins, and reversals. Even if your final directional call is correct, you can still be swept out by that initial volatility.
So the most practical trading strategy I have for tonight is actually: don’t guess. 😂
If it’s $BTC , NQ $QQQB , or gold, I’ll do my best to avoid trading around the interest rate announcement and before/after the press conference—especially I won’t enter early just to gamble on a direction.
After the first round of volatility is over, once the market shows a structure I can understand again, then I’ll decide whether there’s a trading opportunity.
Making a little less for a while doesn’t matter.
I’d rather wait for the price to spell out the answer than try to guess the Fed.
Because in the end, what determines whether I hit Buy / Sell isn’t the news headline—it’s the behavior of price in the moment.
