Tonight the Fed will announce its rate decision. Friends in Bitcoin and Ethereum, focus on two key times:
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, the interest rate decision and the dot plot will be released, and at 2:30 a.m. the Fed Chair will hold a press conference. Don’t wait until 2:30 to start watching— the first round of volatility may come as early as 2:00.
Right now, the market mainly expects a 25-basis-point hike, i.e., 0.25 percentage points. But the more critical question tonight is: after this hike, how much more is still planned?
I’m watching three things closely:
① The size of the rate hike. 25 bps is the mainstream expectation; only if the increase is larger will it mean an additional tightening shock.
② The dot plot. It shows officials’ forecasts for future rates. Look at what level they expect the rate to be by the end of this year and next year. If the forecast is higher than the market expects, it suggests high-rate pressure may last longer; but the dot plot is not a policy commitment.
③ The 2:30 a.m. remarks. Is the Chair emphasizing that inflation still needs to be kept under pressure, or is it a signal to observe after this hike? This will affect the market’s judgment on subsequent hikes, and could also change the market direction after 2:00.
My view: if the hike matches expectations and the remarks aren’t too hawkish, crypto may see a rebound after “bad news is priced in.” If the dot plot and the remarks are more hawkish than expected, Bitcoin and Ethereum could face continued pressure.
So, a higher probability of a rate hike doesn’t automatically mean the coin price must fall. Tonight I’ll look at Fed Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and coin prices together—especially whether the first wave of up/down movement after the press conference can carry on. Control your position size, and don’t treat the first spike as the final direction.
#利率会议 #ETH
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, the interest rate decision and the dot plot will be released, and at 2:30 a.m. the Fed Chair will hold a press conference. Don’t wait until 2:30 to start watching— the first round of volatility may come as early as 2:00.
Right now, the market mainly expects a 25-basis-point hike, i.e., 0.25 percentage points. But the more critical question tonight is: after this hike, how much more is still planned?
I’m watching three things closely:
① The size of the rate hike. 25 bps is the mainstream expectation; only if the increase is larger will it mean an additional tightening shock.
② The dot plot. It shows officials’ forecasts for future rates. Look at what level they expect the rate to be by the end of this year and next year. If the forecast is higher than the market expects, it suggests high-rate pressure may last longer; but the dot plot is not a policy commitment.
③ The 2:30 a.m. remarks. Is the Chair emphasizing that inflation still needs to be kept under pressure, or is it a signal to observe after this hike? This will affect the market’s judgment on subsequent hikes, and could also change the market direction after 2:00.
My view: if the hike matches expectations and the remarks aren’t too hawkish, crypto may see a rebound after “bad news is priced in.” If the dot plot and the remarks are more hawkish than expected, Bitcoin and Ethereum could face continued pressure.
So, a higher probability of a rate hike doesn’t automatically mean the coin price must fall. Tonight I’ll look at Fed Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and coin prices together—especially whether the first wave of up/down movement after the press conference can carry on. Control your position size, and don’t treat the first spike as the final direction.
#利率会议 #ETH
