Brothers, today is September 16th. I’ll keep it brief.
The market is in a really bad state. BTC is currently around $76,000; over the past 24 hours it’s down about 2.5%, with a low touching $75,700. Ethereum has broken below $2,400, and SOL is down more than 5%. In the past 24 hours, nearly 120,000 people were liquidated, with total liquidations of $670 million; long positions accounted for $570 million. The bulls got bloodied—this is a classic slaughter day.
The bill failed. Last night, the Senate held a procedural vote on the (CLEAR bill), 50:49—didn’t reach the 60-vote threshold, so the attempt to push it through failed. Congress is about to enter the midterm election cycle, and this bill basically has no chance this year. The crypto industry spent several hundred million dollars lobbying for this outcome, only to get this. Coinbase and Circle’s stock prices are down more than 10%.
The bigger risk is tonight. At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow, the FOMC will raise rates by 25 bps, with the probability now above 90%. This will be the first rate hike since Waller took office, and the market has basically priced it in. What you really need to watch is the dot plot and the wording—if it’s more hawkish, BTC will continue to dip; if it’s more dovish, there’s room for a rebound.
But there’s one divergence worth noting. Prices are falling, yet ETFs were still net inflows of $160 million yesterday, and BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for $134 million. Institutions are still buying while retail is getting cut. However, later on the 15th there were also reports showing net outflows of $450 million, the largest single-day redemptions in three months—so liquidity is highly split. Don’t look at only one side.
Technical levels are simple: 76,000–76,500 is intraday support, while 79,000–82,000 is the main resistance. The Fear & Greed Index fell from 69 yesterday to 51; greed has shifted to neutral, and sentiment has cooled quickly.
My take: don’t increase leverage before tonight’s FOMC outcome. The rate hike itself has already been priced in, but if the dot plot suggests there are more hikes ahead, whether BTC can hold 75,000 is the key. Strategy in one sentence—de-leverage, keep your ammunition, and wait for the shoe to drop before moving.
Personal observations only; not investment advice. Control your position size yourself!!!$BTC
