橙子Joyce

Will the Federal Reserve raise rates as expected this week? Wall Street is debating: will it end the U.S. stock bull market?

After an unexpectedly strong U.S. CPI report came out last Friday, traders generally expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising rates at this week’s policy meeting—marking the first rate hike in more than three years.

Historically, previous rounds of rate hikes have offered a reference point for today’s market. Based on past experience (though history of course can’t guarantee the future), U.S. stocks may first weaken, then rebound.

Among the six tightening cycles since 1994, during the first four months after the rate-hike cycle began, the S&P 500’s average return was negative.

This suggests that once the “rate-hike shoe” drops, U.S. stocks may look lackluster through the beginning of next year.

As of the close last Friday, the benchmark U.S. equity index, the S&P 500, is up nearly 12% year to date. Strong corporate earnings and a fairly resilient economy have provided solid support for bulls in the stock market.

If you extend the time horizon, the S&P 500’s performance tends to improve gradually: in the 12 months after the start of a rate-hiking cycle, the index’s average return is close to 7%, with a median return of about 11%. (Using median-based statistics helps remove distortions from extreme outliers—for example, the index surged more than 40% after hikes began in March 1997.)

If the Federal Reserve implements a rate hike this Wednesday, it will be the first hike since July 2023—when the Fed raised rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

Currently, the federal funds rate in the U.S. is at 3.50% to 3.75%. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, futures traders currently assign an 86% probability to a 25-basis-point hike this week.

One positive factor for the market is that mega-scale cloud service providers are still driving growth in excess returns through large-scale AI spending. The S&P 500 component stocks’ forecast for earnings growth in 2027 is expected to reach double digits. If the outlook for AI spending remains unchanged, it may be enough to offset any cooling in optimistic sentiment caused by the rate hikes.

Another bright spot for equities is that although inflation remains sticky, it appears to be slowing. The inflation rate has fallen from a May peak of 4.2%. This should allow the Federal Reserve to take a more gradual approach, and the data shows that the pace of rate hikes is crucial for stock performance—slower pacing gives investors more time to absorb policy changes!
$BZ
$CL
Energy

The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has selected SpaceX to execute the StarBurst mission in 2028 under a $1 billion, 10-year VADR launch services contract

NASA has selected SpaceX to provide launch services for the agency’s “StarBurst” mission, which will carry a small satellite to study the formation and merger of neutron stars and the origins of short gamma-ray bursts.

StarBurst will launch in 2028 or later on the “Bandwagon” rideshare mission, using a Falcon 9 rocket launched from Space Launch Complex 40 at the U.S. Space Force Station at Cape Canaveral, Florida.

This procurement is a fixed-price task order under NASA’s VADR (Venture Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare) launch services contract. This indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) contract allows NASA to procure launch services during a 10-year ordering period, with a total value for all contracts capped at up to $1 billion.

The StarBurst mission aims to observe the entire sky beyond the Earth’s occultation to search for short-lived, intense explosive events known as gamma-ray bursts. The satellite will focus on detecting the initial high-energy radiation from short gamma-ray bursts—events that occur when dense remnants of stars, neutron stars, merge.

By combining observational data from the StarBurst telescope with gravitational-wave detections and follow-up observations from other telescopes, researchers will use multiple types of signals to study these astronomical events—an approach known as multi-messenger astronomy.

StarBurst is part of NASA’s Astrophysics Pioneers Program, which aims to support low-cost science missions using small spacecraft and other platforms.

NASA’s Launch Services Program Office at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida manages the VADR contract.
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Invest regularly in SpaceX and Tesla stock
$SPCX.US

$TSLA.US

Elon Musk’s followers: Gracias was introduced to Musk earlier by David Sacks. Valor began investing in SpaceX in 2008, and by 2021 had already poured a total of about $400 million into the company.

In addition to being one of SpaceX’s biggest backers, Gracias and Valor also invested in Tesla (Nasdaq ticker: TSLA). Gracias served on Tesla’s board from 2007 to 2021, after which he stepped down.

Gracias and Valor also invested in Musk’s “boring company” earlier this year.

Form 4 filings submitted by Gracias and Valor show that the investor has reduced its stake in SpaceX by about 8.5%, or 42,790,223 shares. After the sale, Valor still holds 460,624,307 shares of SpaceX, accounting for approximately 3.4% of the company’s total shares outstanding.

Although Gracias is allowing some of Valor’s investors to cash out profits via the SpaceX IPO, he had previously said that he planned to hold the stock long term. Meanwhile, this private equity firm still retains a majority stake in SpaceX.

SpaceX’s stock price rose 2.6% to $154.81, and its 52-week trading range was $104.83 to $225.64. Driven by Thursday’s price increase, SpaceX shares hit a new high since July 9.
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Gracias began investing nearly eighteen years ago, and investing in any company Musk runs has now made his wealth: Gracias’s net worth is about $20.5 billion, ranking 127th on Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index. This investor has accumulated an increase in value of $5.82 billion by 2026.
Truly impressive vision and wisdom—top-tier investment returns 👍👍👍
$SPCX.US

The House Committee on Financial Services advanced the “American Reserve Modernization Act” (H.R. 8957) to the next stage on September 16, 2026 by a vote of 28 to 21. All “yes” votes came from Republicans, and all “no” votes came from Democrats.

The bill’s core content matches the reporting:
• The Treasury Department must establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within 180 days, and also set up an independent Digital Asset Stockpile.
• Federal agencies must report the digital assets they hold within 60 days.
• For the Bitcoin included in the strategic reserve, it must not be sold, exchanged, auctioned, or used as collateral within 20 years.

The revised text is more restrained than the initial version:
• It does not authorize the government to buy Bitcoin; it only requires the Treasury and the Department of Commerce to study acquisition plans that do not “increase the burden on taxpayers.”
• The provisions to purchase more Bitcoin using Federal Reserve funds, to revalue gold certificates, and to buy Bitcoin with tariff revenue have been removed.
• The reserve proof report changed from quarterly to annual.

For now, it is only a “reported favorably” matter by the committee; it will not become law until it is approved by the full House, the Senate, and signed by the President.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
$BTC
$BNB
$ETH

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, is personally supervising the frontline. Musk even moved into a motorhome to oversee construction: xAI’s Memphis data center is the top priority for the world’s richest man.

In recent months, Musk has said he has been stationed in Memphis because SpaceX is ramping up to bring more GPUs online. He wants to live just a few steps away from the data center to save commuting time.

Earlier this year, SpaceX acquired xAI and transformed into a company focused on both aerospace and artificial intelligence. After going public, it announced massive investment in AI data centers, and the Memphis project, Colossus, is one of its flagship data centers.
SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell said this is exactly the kind of thing Musk would do—things people don’t expect, including sleeping in factory workshops and even building a house next to Memphis.

According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk’s net worth is $91.7 billion, and in June he became the first trillionaire in the world—a record that lasted 12 days.

However, his living arrangements are actually quite simple. Musk sold most of his real estate in 2020. After acquiring Twitter (later renamed X) in 2022, he had been living at the company’s headquarters in San Francisco. Over the years, his primary residence has been a rented house near SpaceX’s Starbase in Texas, costing about $50,000 in rent.

During the Tesla production ramp-up in 2017 and 2018, Musk even laid out a makeshift sleeping area near the production site. He said it was extremely crazy at the time—they could only sleep four or five hours per day, and they often slept on the floor.

And this around-the-clock work pattern seems to be playing out again in the Memphis data center project. SpaceX is accelerating the expansion of its massive supercomputing center, Colossus. Originally intended to provide xAI with extremely powerful computing capabilities, it now has expanded its capacity-lease business to Google and Anthropic, offering clients the remaining computing power for billions of dollars.

xAI began building Colossus in 2024, and it’s reported that the initial construction phase of Colossus took just 122 days. Given that SpaceX’s space-focused data center may still be a long way off, Colossus has already become SpaceX’s most critical AI project.
DCA
$SPCX.US
$SPCXB

【For the First Time in Three Years, the Fed Raises Rates】The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, lifting the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%. This is the first rate hike since July 2023 and is in line with market expectations!

The Fed raised rates to drive inflation to fall “more timely,” signaling it will further tighten policy. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (the Fed) raised the target range for the key interest rate to 3.75%-4.00% and hinted that it would further increase borrowing costs in the coming months. Fed Chair Waller supported the rate-hike decision passed unanimously, which effectively acknowledges that the Trump administration so far has failed to control inflation. Waller said that among the many factors pushing up Treasury yields, it does not include the market losing confidence in the Fed’s ability to contain inflation; higher borrowing costs stem from strong economic performance and a surge in capital expenditures, which intensify competition for capital. The Fed’s quarterly projections show that policymakers expect one more rate hike this year and expect rates to remain unchanged in 2027. At the same time, policymakers also raised their near-term inflation expectations and their forecast for economic growth this year.

U.S. President Trump said that U.S. interest rates should be at 1% or lower and should be cut quickly. However, he said that even after the Fed’s decision to raise rates, he still has confidence in Waller.
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I remain firmly committed to buying the stocks of the industry’s leading companies: Nvidia, and SpaceX, and Tesla.

$SPCX.US
$NVDA.US
$TSLA.US

The U.S. military for the first time publicly confirmed that the country now has space-based “space control weapons” in orbit, and that the “Iron Dome” space-based interceptor project has advanced to the “flight-ready hardware” stage.

U.S. Air Force Secretary Troy M. (Troy Meinke) said on Monday: “The United States now has in-orbit space control weapons that can protect U.S. forces from attacks by hostile forces,” adding, “From a deterrence standpoint, this is important.” Meinke did not specify the type of the space-based weapon. Reports said this was the first time the U.S. acknowledged that it has “offensive capabilities” in space.

On Tuesday, Douglas Hiss, commander of the U.S. Space Force, further confirmed that soldiers of the space forces have been operating “in-orbit weapons capable of withstanding attacks in space.” Richard Palmer, director of the Space Command’s office for capabilities and resources integration, also said on Tuesday that the public disclosure of these capabilities is intended to deter adversaries while demonstrating that the United States is prepared to respond. Palmer said, “Our joint forces and our allies need space, and our economy needs space. The United States is ready to uphold this.”

On Monday, Meinke revealed that the “Iron Dome” space-based interceptor project “advanced from the initial contract stage to flight-ready hardware in less than a year.”

According to reports, in May last year, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a development plan for the “Iron Dome” missile defense system. Trump said that “Iron Dome” would be integrated with the United States’ existing missile defense capabilities, and once fully built, it could intercept missiles launched from other places in the world and even from space. The entire system is expected to cost about $175 billion (USD), and is planned to be “fully operational” within three years.

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$Space concept stocks
$SPCX.US

$LMT.US
$RTX.US

The Fed’s decision is about to be released, and the market is pricing a higher chance of a rate hike, up to 94%

Interest rate swaps linked to the Federal Reserve meeting show that the market expects the probability of this rate hike at about 94%, implying that roughly 23 basis points of tightening have already been priced in. If the hike happens as scheduled, the federal funds rate range will rise to 3.75%–4%. If the Fed keeps rates unchanged, it could become the biggest “dovish surprise” at a routine meeting since the Fed began formally publishing its policy decisions in 1994.

Hassett said that both he and U.S. President Donald Trump “respect whatever the Fed decides to do, no matter what it is.” In an interview on Tuesday, Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, outlined reasons why the Fed should not raise rates, but also said, “we” respect whatever decision the Fed will make. Last Sunday, Hassett made a similar remark, saying that both Trump and he believe there is no reason to hike rates, but he would support 100% any decision the Fed makes, and that Trump respects Powell and the Fed’s independence. It is important for the Fed to maintain the status quo ahead of the election.

Meanwhile, the market has started to reassess the AI-driven stock rally, while also absorbing the impact of rising oil prices and the possibility of a rate hike by the Fed this week.
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Only the stock prices of international large corporations are the real opportunities—we will patiently wait for prices to pull back!
$NVDA.US
$META.US

Landmark bill rejected, crypto market faces major negative pressure.

On September 15 in Eastern Time, the U.S. Senate voted to block the advancement of the “Clarity Act” (the Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act). This dealt a significant blow to the crypto industry’s efforts to establish a comprehensive market-structure framework. The final vote was 50 in favor and 49 against—far below the 60 votes required to overcome procedural obstacles.

Although the bill went through more than a year of negotiations, the two parties ultimately failed to bridge their differences on key provisions. A major reason cited by Democratic lawmakers is the bill’s ongoing controversy over conflict-of-interest provisions involving Trump’s cryptocurrency business interests. The bill would create a major loophole in nearly a century of securities laws—allowing non-crypto companies to put assets on-chain to evade investor protections, and enabling banks to use customer deposits for crypto lending, trading derivatives, operating nodes, and selling related software.

The bill aims to provide a clearer regulatory framework for banks, broker-dealers, and asset management institutions to participate in digital-asset trading and product development, and is widely seen as the most systematic attempt at crypto legislation in recent years.

The bill’s failure to pass further prolongs a regulatory vacuum in the crypto market, leaving the industry with greater uncertainty in areas such as compliance pathways, capital allocation, and institutionalization timelines.

The failure of this vote may mean the crypto industry will have to wait until next year for clearer rules.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are already moving forward with rulemaking in the digital-asset space. Even if Congress does not pass a clarity bill, those rules will still provide guidance for investment institutions.

The fundamentals of the crypto industry are stronger than ever. Billions of dollars of capital are moving on-chain; leading payment companies and financial institutions are adopting blockchain technology; and entrepreneurs around the world continue to develop new financial products—driving capital into the internet era. We will continue to work toward establishing clear regulatory rules that both protect consumers and provide room for innovation and building for entrepreneurs.

😁 It’s a wise move to invest regularly in BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL!
$BTC

$BNB

Apple continues to expand iPhone’s satellite communication capabilities, while SpaceX is advancing direct-to-cell phone connectivity to low-Earth orbit satellites through Starlink.

The industry scale is expanding accordingly. As of the end of June this year, 123 satellite direct-to-mobile collaborations between satellite operators and mobile carriers have been publicly disclosed worldwide, with 23 already launched. Starlink alone involves 99 partnerships.

While direct-to-satellite connectivity on phones is still in the technical validation stage, the main question is who will connect first and who will get calls through first. As more players enter the scene, another issue begins to emerge: if, in the future, carriers in different countries all want to increase satellite coverage, does every carrier behind the scenes need to build its own independent satellite network?

SpaceX currently represents a highly vertically integrated approach: it controls rockets, satellites, and the network itself, then partners with carriers in various countries.

It is trying to spin off parts of the infrastructure in satellite communications so that multiple carriers can share them.

Which model is lower-cost and more efficient is still unclear. But the fact that these two paths are emerging at the same time already indicates that direct-to-phone satellite connectivity is shifting from a simple technological race to a more complex industrial contest.

More than 200 years ago, in The Wealth of Nations, the discussion focused on why pin-making needs division of labor.

Today’s question is about satellites.
When a market becomes large enough, which capabilities should still remain in the hands of a single company, and which infrastructure is better suited to be used jointly by many?
Steady and continuous investing $SPCX.US
$SPCX

Elon Musk just threw another heavyweight bomb. When replying to a user on X, the head of SpaceX (SPCX.US) said clearly: “I am highly confident that SpaceX will deploy an NVIDIA (NVDA.US) VR NLV72 AI computer in space next year.”

Musk’s VR NLV72 refers to NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin NVL72, which this year has entered full-scale production. This rack-level AI supercomputer integrates 72 Rubin GPUs and 36 Vera CPUs. Its single-rack inference computing power reaches 3.6 EFLOPS, while its training computing power is 2.5 EFLOPS. The core Rubin GPU is based on TSMC (TSM.US) 3nm process technology, integrates 336 billion transistors, and comes with 288GB of HBM4 memory, delivering 22TB/s bandwidth. Per-card inference performance is 5x that of the previous-generation Blackwell. The total memory plus VRAM capacity of the entire cabinet is as high as 74.7TB—roughly equivalent to the total memory of 4,500 mainstream smartphones. NVIDIA’s own claim is that, compared with the GB200 NVL72, the inference cost per million tokens is only one-tenth.

Not just putting a chip in space

Sending a device like this to orbit is on a completely different scale from prior experiments that “ran a GPU in orbit.”

SpaceX’s roadmap is more specific than the outside world imagines. According to CFO Bret Johnsen’s remarks at a Goldman Sachs conference, the company will launch its first batch of Starmind AI1 satellites in the fourth quarter of 2027, and will significantly expand deployments in 2028. In essence, these satellites are “racks in space”—repurposing the Starlink V3 satellite platform, removing the communications phased-array antenna, swapping in a computing payload and a larger solar array, and adding a 110-square-meter deployable liquid-cooling heat dissipation unit. The first-generation AI1 satellite will have an approximately 20-meter deployment height, a 70-meter wingspan, a 210-kilowatt solar cell array, an average compute power of 120 kilowatts, and a peak power of 250 kilowatts.

Production is also moving forward. SpaceX’s AI satellite factory in Bastrop, Texas aims to achieve large-scale production by the end of 2027, with a long-term plan to deploy about 1 million AI satellites.

At the chip level, SpaceX is already NVIDIA’s “die-hard” customer. In an earnings call, Musk said bluntly: “We think the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture, the best AI computer, so we only choose NVIDIA.” Johnsen added that the partnership with NVIDIA helps SpaceX secure scarce production capacity allocations for GPUs amid current supply constraints.
I continue to invest in SPCX and GOOGL
$SPCXB

$BTC

Is a high interest rate the “terminator” for the U.S. stock market? Or are earnings the real factor?

This round of rate hikes is still some distance away from truly suppressing valuations. The key factor determining the valuation ceiling is not the interest rate level itself, but the earnings growth rate.

More broadly, Wall Street strategists have also not treated the Fed’s possible return to rate hikes as a signal ending the bull market. As long as economic growth and corporate earnings remain resilient, market pullbacks caused by moderate hikes may be only short-term volatility.

The threshold where valuations truly come under pressure is 5%-6%

The first tier is a super-growth environment where earnings growth exceeds 20%. In such a case, the valuation multiple can be supported as high as about 24x, corresponding to a 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of roughly 6%. The second tier is a above-trend growth environment with earnings growth of 10%-20%, where the valuation multiple is about 20x, corresponding to a yield of around 5%. Overall, the lower the earnings growth rate, the lower the interest-rate level the market can tolerate.

Currently, the S&P 500 trades at about 22x 2026 EPS, implying adjusted 2026 earnings growth of roughly 28%. For 2027, the valuation is about 18x, implying earnings growth of about 21% (excluding one-off investment gains/losses). This means that as long as earnings growth can be maintained at 15% or above, there is still room for further valuation re-rating in 2027.

There’s another yardstick for whether valuations are expensive. A two-stage dividend discount model shows that the implied equity risk premium is currently about 7.2%, which is around the 69th percentile historically; the long-term PEG is about 2x. In other words, as long as companies can deliver average annual earnings growth of 13%-15%, today’s valuation level still has fundamental support.

The 30 AI leaders currently trade at about 30x forward valuations. That compares with roughly 19x for the other 470 constituents in the S&P 500 and about 14.3x for MSCI ACWI peers. This valuation premium mainly comes from stronger visibility into earnings, lower leverage levels, and more stable shareholder returns.

Productivity is another buffer. If productivity stays in the 1.5%-2.5% range, the current yield can still support roughly a 20x valuation multiple. If AI further drives productivity above 2.5%, the valuation support would be even stronger.

In the short term, these two forces are enough to partially offset the pressure from rising financing costs: first, improved profitability in the financial sector; second, companies still hold about $2.4 trillion, and these funds can earn higher interest income. From a market-cap style perspective, large-cap stocks have stronger ability to absorb pressure.
$GOOG.US

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has, in sequence, authorized transactions involving Venezuelan gold and broader mineral-related deals under OFAC, allowing dealings with the state-owned gold mining company Minerven, and permitting negotiations for investment contracts and the provision of mining-related services. More recent licenses have also expanded coverage further to include coal and others.

Commodity trader Trafigura has reached an agreement with Minerven to purchase roughly 650–1,000 kilograms of gold bars (ingots) and ship them to the United States for refining.

Through a new mining law, Venezuela allows foreign capital to participate in the extraction of “strategic minerals,” including gold, for terms of up to 30 years. U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum led dozens of executives from U.S. companies on a visit to Venezuela to promote opportunities in gold, bauxite, nickel, iron ore, rare earths, and other sectors.

The U.S. is also considering further measures (including a possible executive order on critical minerals), with the goal of ensuring that U.S. firms can not only obtain oil, but also secure supplies of minerals important to national security. The White House said the two countries are benefiting from a “reset in relations” and new Western investment in critical industries.

Venezuela’s resources are not fictional: official data in 2018 listed about 644 metric tons of gold, about 14.68 billion tons of iron ore, about 320 million tons of bauxite, and about 408,000 tons of nickel. Institutions such as CSIS estimate gold resources at roughly on the order of 75 million ounces. But years of nationalization, sanctions, illegal mining, and armed control mean actual output remains far below potential.

The policy direction is already clear—after oil, the U.S. is continuing to “lock in” Venezuelan resources, with gold being the first to take shape because it can be monetized quickly and is relatively easier to transport. Real-scale mine investment (exploration, infrastructure, and formal production) will still take longer, because gaps remain in areas like security, electricity, roads, and the credibility of contracts. In the near term, what is more likely is trade, refining, service contracts, and the restarting of a few older projects—not the immediate emergence of a batch of world-class new mines.
What to watch is not the slogans, but three things: whether armed groups are being pushed out of mining areas, whether gold traceability and due diligence can be verified, and where the money from new contracts ultimately flows. These three matters determine whether this is “a move toward normalization and reform,” or just the old model with a new set of buyers.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
$XAU
$BTC
Sustained investment in XAU gold and BTC bitcoin

CPI beats expectations and triggers a rate-hike cycle—why is Bitcoin strengthening against the trend?

The probability that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate-hike cycle next week has surged significantly. The key driver is the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data released on Friday, which came in far above market expectations. This sudden shift in macro fundamentals directly shattered the market’s earlier fantasy that monetary policy would remain unchanged, turning rate hikes from “possible” into “almost a done deal.”

However, unlike the traditional financial paradigm that “rate hikes are bad for risk assets,” the crypto market is showing counterintuitive resilience. Bitcoin’s price did not pull back on tighter-expectations; instead, it rose after the data release. This divergence has prompted the market to re-examine the underlying pricing logic.

Ahead of the CPI release, traders already leaned toward the view that the Fed would raise rates—“most of the risks brought by hawkish policy have already been priced in.” Therefore, if the Fed acts as expected, the market reaction should be relatively muted; conversely, if the central bank chooses to stand pat, risk assets could jump sharply due to the failure of expectations.
Within the 30 days when core CPI is above expectations, Bitcoin’s average gain is 2.13%.
In addition, the prices of Ethereum and SOL are rising in sync, suggesting that capital is not leaving the crypto space. Instead, it appears to be reallocating based on concerns about inflation and the credibility of policy.
Bitcoin’s simultaneous rise with gold stems from doubts about policy credibility. A mild inflation outlook might lead Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to keep interest rates unchanged, but Friday’s data changed that picture. Even though U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent increased the size of longer-dated bill (repo) operations, U.S. Treasury yields are still climbing, indicating that investors are worried not only about the level of interest rates, but also about the risk of government debt and inflation getting out of control. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin—owing to its non-mintable, fixed-supply nature—has become an alternative asset to hedge against currency debasement.
To stress it again: “We can’t print oil, and Bitcoin can’t be devalued.” This logic explains why, even amid rate-hike shadows, BTC can still attract capital as a safe-haven tool—marking a shift in its narrative from a mere risk asset to a macro-hedging instrument.
I continue to invest in BTC, ETH, and gold (XAU)
$BTC

$ETH
$XAU

Why do Fed rate hikes could actually be good for the market?
What if this rate hike kicks off the next leg of a bull market?

According to CME’s Fed Watch tool, the probability of a rate hike priced into the market has surged sharply, rising from 59% a week ago to 87% on Friday. Given that this week’s inflation report shows prices are still remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target, this shift is also entirely understandable. Moreover, this week oil prices rose by 9%, suggesting inflationary pressure is unlikely to ease in the near term. Add the strong August jobs report we saw the prior week, and the rationale for a rate hike now seems crystal clear.
But how much impact would a 25-basis-point hike really have?
Rates are already rising: the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has jumped from 4.4% at the end of June to nearly 5% today, and the 2-year yield has risen by roughly the same amount. On Thursday, the 30-year yield closed at 5.36%, the highest level since June 2004.

A similar situation also appeared in the late 1990s: at the time, when the 30-year Treasury yield rose by 2% and the Fed hiked rates by more than 1%, the Nasdaq still celebrated exuberantly. We expect the stock market to rebound strongly after any pullbacks—just like during the dot-com bubble era and in more recent times. Therefore, if downward momentum returns, buyers could step in aggressively.
And slightly higher short-term rates wouldn’t deter them either—especially if the rate hike can stabilize long-end bond yields, which is quite possible.

At this point, a rate hike would indicate that Fed Chair Kevin Walsh is indeed taking seriously the goal of bringing inflation under control. Conversely, if Walsh vows to make high inflation a thing of the past, yet avoids rate hikes afterward, that would prevent damage to the Fed’s credibility. Under this logic, rate hikes could actually be a mildly positive development for long-term bonds and stocks.

But in the current environment, a rate hike that the market has already fully priced in—and that is actually necessary—can reinforce market stability, calm fears about runaway inflation, and refocus investors on what truly matters: the AI buildout wave and the profit feast it keeps delivering. The more investors concentrate on this main theme, the better market performance is likely to be.
$SPCXB

$SPCX.US
$GOOGL.US
I will continue investing regularly in $SPCX, $GOOGL,

SpaceX’s Starship will generate revenue later this month for the first time, as Elon Musk’s space company moves the giant rocket from the demonstration-flight phase to actual operations.

Flight 14 will carry the production version of the Starlink V3 satellites and could become Starship’s first orbital mission.

Starship enters mass production: its V3 satellites will add about 20 times the capacity per Starship launch compared with Falcon 9 carrying out Starlink launch missions.

A new compute hosting agreement, which will bring in about $1.11 billion in revenue per month starting December 1, further boosts market confidence that SpaceX will achieve $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of the year.

Very bullish on the September launch! Keep investing in SPCX stock
$SPCX.US

$SPCXB

At 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor released the August CPI data. In August, CPI year-over-year rose 3.40%, in line with expectations of 3.40% and the prior value of 3.40%. The U.S. August core consumer price index rose 2.4% year-over-year, matching the forecast of 2.4% and down from the prior 2.5%. Traders currently estimate the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates next week is about 90%, whereas it was about 70% before the inflation data were released.

On September 10, Eastern Time, SpaceX’s (SPCX.US) Chief Financial Officer Brett Johnsen attended the 2026 Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference and disclosed the latest business developments. Johnsen said SpaceX has recently won another large-scale AI compute outsourcing order, and the compute services business is rapidly becoming a core growth engine.

He also released timelines for multiple business lines, including ground-based compute capacity expansion, on-orbit compute, Starship commercialization, and satellite direct-to-cellphone services. Johnsen announced the company’s “chest goal” for business expansion: SpaceX is confident it can target $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) by the end of 2026.

Tesla China launches a new high-performance all-wheel-drive version of the Model Y: 0–100 km/h in 3.5 seconds, starting at RMB 369,000
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Tesla China has officially launched a new high-performance all-wheel-drive version of the Model Y, with a starting price of RMB 369,000. The new car’s 0–100 km/h acceleration takes only 3.5 seconds, and its top speed can reach 250 km/h. This is the first time a high-performance version has been released following the Model Y refresh. With this, the Model Y lineup now includes five models: the rear-wheel-drive version (starting at RMB 263,500), the long-range rear-wheel-drive version (starting at RMB 288,500), the long-range all-wheel-drive version (starting at RMB 313,500), the Model Y L with six seats (starting at RMB 339,000), and the high-performance all-wheel-drive version (starting at RMB 369,000).

Contrary to investors’ views, economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold steady
A survey shows that most economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this month’s meeting and to remain on hold through the end of 2027, even as market expectations for rate hikes have been heating up.

Economists believe that easing inflation, along with the approach of the U.S. midterm elections, could lead policymakers to keep rates unchanged at the September 15–16 meeting and then keep them unchanged again in October. Of the 48 economists surveyed between September 4 and 9, only 13 expected a rate hike this month.
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Just released, the US August PPI year-over-year rose 5.40%, expected to rise 5.30%, with the prior reading up 4.70%. After the PPI data was released, the market fully priced in that the Federal Reserve will hike rates in October.

The US dollar index rose slightly in the short term and is now at 99.00. The yield on US 10-year Treasuries rose slightly in the short term and is now at 4.890%. US stock index futures widened their losses, with Nasdaq futures down more than 1%. International oil prices continued to climb: WTI crude oil futures moved higher, reaching above $100 per barrel. Spot gold and silver were lower; spot silver fell more than 4% intraday, and spot gold fell more than 1%.

This PPI report was released one day before the latest CPI data is due, which is expected to show so-called core inflation is relatively mild. Some Federal Reserve officials have hinted that the rate decision at the September 15–16 meeting may depend on what this week’s reports reveal. In a speech last month, Fed Chair Waller said that if policymakers are unable to be confident that underlying inflation trends are improving significantly, the Fed “has more work to do.” As hostilities between the US and Iran continue, another rise in oil prices could further complicate the outlook.

【US August PPI growth beats expectations, still far above the Fed’s inflation target】The US wholesale prices rose in August. The PPI report released Thursday may play an important role in the rate decision the Fed is about to make. The data showed that after seasonal adjustment, August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, matching market expectations. On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 5.4%, still far above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and also 0.1 percentage points higher than market expectations. $BZ
With crude oil prices continuing to rise, expectations of a Fed rate hike in October are heating up! The probability of a rate hike has risen to 61%