橙子Joyce

【Federal Reserve Raises Rates for the First Time in Three Years】The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, lifting the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%. This is the first rate hike since July 2023 and is in line with market expectations. Previously, the Fed had held steady for five consecutive meetings.

U.S. Sep 16 Fed interest rate decision (upper limit) 4%, forecast 4%, previous 3.75%.

U.S. Sep 17 reserve balance interest rate 3.9%, forecast 3.9%, previous 3.65%.

The Fed dot plot median indicates one more rate hike in 2026. Fed FOMC statement: All members agreed on this rate decision. (The previous meeting was 9-3.) Fed FOMC statement: The rate hike will support inflation returning to the 2% target “in a more timely manner.”

Fed FOMC economic projections: The median forecast for the federal funds rate at end-2026 is 4.1%. (June forecast was 3.8%.)

Fed FOMC statement: Inflation remains elevated.

Fed FOMC statement: Economic activity is expanding at a steady pace.

The Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points; spot gold fell by more than $50 in the short term, now at $4,317.65 per ounce.

Fed dot plot forecasts show that among 18 officials, 12 expect one more 25-basis-point hike this year; 4 expect two more hikes; and 2 expect no further hikes.

Fed FOMC economic projections: The median forecasts for GDP growth from 2026 to 2028 are 2.3%, 2.4%, and 2.2%, respectively. (Previously expected were 2.2%, 2.3%, and 2.2%.)

Fed FOMC economic projections: The median forecast for core CPI is 3.4% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rises about 40 points in the short term, now at 99.81.

Fed FOMC economic projections: The median forecasts for the unemployment rate from 2026 to 2028 are 4.1%, 4.1%, and 4.1%, respectively. (June forecasts were 4.3%, 4.3%, and 4.2%.)

Fed FOMC economic projections: The median unemployment rate forecast for 2029 is 4.1%.

Fed FOMC statement: Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is steady.

Fed FOMC economic projections: The median forecast for PCE inflation from 2026 to 2028 is 3.7%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively. (June forecasts were 3.6%, 2.3%, and 2%.)

The market has fully priced in another 25-basis-point rate hike by year-end, which is broadly consistent with the situation before the decision was released.
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$NVDA.US

Will the Federal Reserve raise rates as expected this week? Wall Street is debating: will it end the U.S. stock bull market?

After an unexpectedly strong U.S. CPI report came out last Friday, traders generally expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising rates at this week’s policy meeting—marking the first rate hike in more than three years.

Historically, previous rounds of rate hikes have offered a reference point for today’s market. Based on past experience (though history of course can’t guarantee the future), U.S. stocks may first weaken, then rebound.

Among the six tightening cycles since 1994, during the first four months after the rate-hike cycle began, the S&P 500’s average return was negative.

This suggests that once the “rate-hike shoe” drops, U.S. stocks may look lackluster through the beginning of next year.

As of the close last Friday, the benchmark U.S. equity index, the S&P 500, is up nearly 12% year to date. Strong corporate earnings and a fairly resilient economy have provided solid support for bulls in the stock market.

If you extend the time horizon, the S&P 500’s performance tends to improve gradually: in the 12 months after the start of a rate-hiking cycle, the index’s average return is close to 7%, with a median return of about 11%. (Using median-based statistics helps remove distortions from extreme outliers—for example, the index surged more than 40% after hikes began in March 1997.)

If the Federal Reserve implements a rate hike this Wednesday, it will be the first hike since July 2023—when the Fed raised rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

Currently, the federal funds rate in the U.S. is at 3.50% to 3.75%. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, futures traders currently assign an 86% probability to a 25-basis-point hike this week.

One positive factor for the market is that mega-scale cloud service providers are still driving growth in excess returns through large-scale AI spending. The S&P 500 component stocks’ forecast for earnings growth in 2027 is expected to reach double digits. If the outlook for AI spending remains unchanged, it may be enough to offset any cooling in optimistic sentiment caused by the rate hikes.

Another bright spot for equities is that although inflation remains sticky, it appears to be slowing. The inflation rate has fallen from a May peak of 4.2%. This should allow the Federal Reserve to take a more gradual approach, and the data shows that the pace of rate hikes is crucial for stock performance—slower pacing gives investors more time to absorb policy changes!
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Energy

The U.S. military for the first time publicly confirmed that the country now has space-based “space control weapons” in orbit, and that the “Iron Dome” space-based interceptor project has advanced to the “flight-ready hardware” stage.

U.S. Air Force Secretary Troy M. (Troy Meinke) said on Monday: “The United States now has in-orbit space control weapons that can protect U.S. forces from attacks by hostile forces,” adding, “From a deterrence standpoint, this is important.” Meinke did not specify the type of the space-based weapon. Reports said this was the first time the U.S. acknowledged that it has “offensive capabilities” in space.

On Tuesday, Douglas Hiss, commander of the U.S. Space Force, further confirmed that soldiers of the space forces have been operating “in-orbit weapons capable of withstanding attacks in space.” Richard Palmer, director of the Space Command’s office for capabilities and resources integration, also said on Tuesday that the public disclosure of these capabilities is intended to deter adversaries while demonstrating that the United States is prepared to respond. Palmer said, “Our joint forces and our allies need space, and our economy needs space. The United States is ready to uphold this.”

On Monday, Meinke revealed that the “Iron Dome” space-based interceptor project “advanced from the initial contract stage to flight-ready hardware in less than a year.”

According to reports, in May last year, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a development plan for the “Iron Dome” missile defense system. Trump said that “Iron Dome” would be integrated with the United States’ existing missile defense capabilities, and once fully built, it could intercept missiles launched from other places in the world and even from space. The entire system is expected to cost about $175 billion (USD), and is planned to be “fully operational” within three years.

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The Fed’s decision is about to be released, and the market is pricing a higher chance of a rate hike, up to 94%

Interest rate swaps linked to the Federal Reserve meeting show that the market expects the probability of this rate hike at about 94%, implying that roughly 23 basis points of tightening have already been priced in. If the hike happens as scheduled, the federal funds rate range will rise to 3.75%–4%. If the Fed keeps rates unchanged, it could become the biggest “dovish surprise” at a routine meeting since the Fed began formally publishing its policy decisions in 1994.

Hassett said that both he and U.S. President Donald Trump “respect whatever the Fed decides to do, no matter what it is.” In an interview on Tuesday, Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, outlined reasons why the Fed should not raise rates, but also said, “we” respect whatever decision the Fed will make. Last Sunday, Hassett made a similar remark, saying that both Trump and he believe there is no reason to hike rates, but he would support 100% any decision the Fed makes, and that Trump respects Powell and the Fed’s independence. It is important for the Fed to maintain the status quo ahead of the election.

Meanwhile, the market has started to reassess the AI-driven stock rally, while also absorbing the impact of rising oil prices and the possibility of a rate hike by the Fed this week.
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Only the stock prices of international large corporations are the real opportunities—we will patiently wait for prices to pull back!
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$META.US

Landmark bill rejected, crypto market faces major negative pressure.

On September 15 in Eastern Time, the U.S. Senate voted to block the advancement of the “Clarity Act” (the Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act). This dealt a significant blow to the crypto industry’s efforts to establish a comprehensive market-structure framework. The final vote was 50 in favor and 49 against—far below the 60 votes required to overcome procedural obstacles.

Although the bill went through more than a year of negotiations, the two parties ultimately failed to bridge their differences on key provisions. A major reason cited by Democratic lawmakers is the bill’s ongoing controversy over conflict-of-interest provisions involving Trump’s cryptocurrency business interests. The bill would create a major loophole in nearly a century of securities laws—allowing non-crypto companies to put assets on-chain to evade investor protections, and enabling banks to use customer deposits for crypto lending, trading derivatives, operating nodes, and selling related software.

The bill aims to provide a clearer regulatory framework for banks, broker-dealers, and asset management institutions to participate in digital-asset trading and product development, and is widely seen as the most systematic attempt at crypto legislation in recent years.

The bill’s failure to pass further prolongs a regulatory vacuum in the crypto market, leaving the industry with greater uncertainty in areas such as compliance pathways, capital allocation, and institutionalization timelines.

The failure of this vote may mean the crypto industry will have to wait until next year for clearer rules.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are already moving forward with rulemaking in the digital-asset space. Even if Congress does not pass a clarity bill, those rules will still provide guidance for investment institutions.

The fundamentals of the crypto industry are stronger than ever. Billions of dollars of capital are moving on-chain; leading payment companies and financial institutions are adopting blockchain technology; and entrepreneurs around the world continue to develop new financial products—driving capital into the internet era. We will continue to work toward establishing clear regulatory rules that both protect consumers and provide room for innovation and building for entrepreneurs.

😁 It’s a wise move to invest regularly in BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL!
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Apple continues to expand iPhone’s satellite communication capabilities, while SpaceX is advancing direct-to-cell phone connectivity to low-Earth orbit satellites through Starlink.

The industry scale is expanding accordingly. As of the end of June this year, 123 satellite direct-to-mobile collaborations between satellite operators and mobile carriers have been publicly disclosed worldwide, with 23 already launched. Starlink alone involves 99 partnerships.

While direct-to-satellite connectivity on phones is still in the technical validation stage, the main question is who will connect first and who will get calls through first. As more players enter the scene, another issue begins to emerge: if, in the future, carriers in different countries all want to increase satellite coverage, does every carrier behind the scenes need to build its own independent satellite network?

SpaceX currently represents a highly vertically integrated approach: it controls rockets, satellites, and the network itself, then partners with carriers in various countries.

It is trying to spin off parts of the infrastructure in satellite communications so that multiple carriers can share them.

Which model is lower-cost and more efficient is still unclear. But the fact that these two paths are emerging at the same time already indicates that direct-to-phone satellite connectivity is shifting from a simple technological race to a more complex industrial contest.

More than 200 years ago, in The Wealth of Nations, the discussion focused on why pin-making needs division of labor.

Today’s question is about satellites.
When a market becomes large enough, which capabilities should still remain in the hands of a single company, and which infrastructure is better suited to be used jointly by many?
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