September 16, 2026 · Beijing time (UTC+8)
In the early hours of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will release the outcome of its September policy meeting. #美联储加息是否已成定局
Before the meeting results are officially released, it seems the market has already handed in the answer first.
According to CME “FedWatch” data from September 15, the market expects a 92.4% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in September, while the probability of holding rates unchanged is only 7.6%.
In other words, what the market is truly concerned about now may no longer be whether the Fed will “raise rates,” but rather—after these 25 basis points, what the Federal Reserve is going to say next.
After all, a 25-basis-point move in itself isn’t an unusually large surprise.
What could genuinely cause the market to reprice again is the Fed’s remarks about the future interest-rate path.
If the signals released by the Fed are of a “one-time rate hike,” the market may think the worst expectations have already been priced in. But if the Fed signals that further hikes are still coming, then the “rate-hike expectations” that traders have already priced in today could turn back into a new source of pressure.
This is also the most worth watching part of tonight’s market.
Recently, U.S. inflation has still been somewhat sticky. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note briefly broke above 5%, and the U.S. dollar has also remained relatively strong. Against this backdrop, market expectations for further Fed rate hikes have been heating up quickly.
So tonight, there could be a somewhat interesting scenario:
Everyone knows the Fed will most likely raise rates—the real unknown is whether the Fed, after it hikes, will continue to “scare the market.”
For risk assets such as gold, U.S. equities, and Bitcoin, what needs the most caution may not be the 25 basis points themselves, but the “unexpected information” that the market hasn’t fully priced in yet.
After all, what the market fears most has never been information that’s already known.
What terrifies people most is—everyone thinks they already know all the answers, only for the Fed to add an extra question on the last page.