Got a work paper from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS): estimating Bitcoin on-chain transfer volumes—depending on the definitions, results can differ by up to about 6x. The key question is whether “change output” (change output) should be counted as “transfers to someone.” The paper scanned roughly 100 billion records across BTC/ETH/TRON. Conventional market caps can sometimes be converted to achieve realized market caps about 4x higher. USDT is more DeFi-oriented on ETH, but on TRON it’s more like payments/hoarding; cross-chain aggregation can easily blur scenarios. The conclusion is quite restrained: treat on-chain metrics as noisy approximations, not as an exact economic thermometer.$BTC #链上数据 #BIS