August core CPI month-on-month +0.3%, CME pricing for a 25bp rate hike this week is nearing 90%
But first, let me make a contrarian judgment
90% is not a certainty—it’s the certainty inside a trap. The real question has never been whether they will “hike” or not. It’s what’s hidden in Powell’s wording: is it “the last time,” or “the first step.”
The former is “bad news fully priced in,” the latter is a signal gun for restarting the tightening cycle
In plain language: what the market fears isn’t this one cut—it’s the fact that there may be several more cuts after it
The transmission chain is actually very short: the hike gets implemented → short-end rates rise → global liquidity tightens → high-valuation assets take the first blow
$BTC and tech stocks are hard to distinguish—when they’re rising, you follow sentiment; when they’re falling, you follow liquidity
Gold is the exception— the stickier inflation is, the tougher it gets
So my view is very straightforward
Before the statement is finalized, be cautiously bearish on BTC and tech stocks; after the decision, everything hinges on the wording
If Powell signals “we’re done,” the gold opportunity is right in front of you; if the dot plot shows two more hikes this year, then the first bounce is your chance to escape
My strategy doesn’t bet on direction—it bets on survival: cut the position in half, zero out leverage, and keep enough ammunition
After tonight, there will be only two kinds of people—those who have already written a contingency plan, and those who come after the fact asking “what happened?”
Remember: rate cuts are the launch button for BTC, and rate hikes are the safety pin. But the button is in Powell’s hands—never in the candlestick chart. Manage position size; it’s always more important than guessing direction. #美联储加息是否已成定局
But first, let me make a contrarian judgment
90% is not a certainty—it’s the certainty inside a trap. The real question has never been whether they will “hike” or not. It’s what’s hidden in Powell’s wording: is it “the last time,” or “the first step.”
The former is “bad news fully priced in,” the latter is a signal gun for restarting the tightening cycle
In plain language: what the market fears isn’t this one cut—it’s the fact that there may be several more cuts after it
The transmission chain is actually very short: the hike gets implemented → short-end rates rise → global liquidity tightens → high-valuation assets take the first blow
$BTC and tech stocks are hard to distinguish—when they’re rising, you follow sentiment; when they’re falling, you follow liquidity
Gold is the exception— the stickier inflation is, the tougher it gets
So my view is very straightforward
Before the statement is finalized, be cautiously bearish on BTC and tech stocks; after the decision, everything hinges on the wording
If Powell signals “we’re done,” the gold opportunity is right in front of you; if the dot plot shows two more hikes this year, then the first bounce is your chance to escape
My strategy doesn’t bet on direction—it bets on survival: cut the position in half, zero out leverage, and keep enough ammunition
After tonight, there will be only two kinds of people—those who have already written a contingency plan, and those who come after the fact asking “what happened?”
Remember: rate cuts are the launch button for BTC, and rate hikes are the safety pin. But the button is in Powell’s hands—never in the candlestick chart. Manage position size; it’s always more important than guessing direction. #美联储加息是否已成定局
