The day is bright and sunny; tonight will once again be a storm of blood and gore.
As a smart little investor, tonight before the 2:00 a.m. decision comes out, you’d better not move. After the decision, watch the wording in Powell’s speech—if it’s dovish, wait for the rebound to hold steady at $77,000 before considering going short; if it’s hawkish, wait until around $73,000 before considering going long. Wait on both sides; don’t bet on direction.
Altcoins will also swing violently—be careful!
The market already prices in a 92% chance of a rate hike. If Powell says, "This is a one-time, data-dependent adjustment and we don’t assume a path"
that 92% hike probability has already made the market drop by 7%. The inverse of "buy expectations, sell facts"—"sell expectations, buy facts"—is more likely to happen.
BTC short-term rationale for rebounding to $77,000–$79,000: uncertainty is removed + it already fell too much and needs to be repaired, but after the rebound it will still likely trade in a $75,000–$77,000 range, because the hike itself is a tangible negative.
If Powell says, "This isn’t the last time"
and if he also hints that there will be another hike in November or December, the dot plot shifts higher:
If BTC falls to $71,000–$73,000, Treasury yields keep surging, the dollar strengthens, and risk assets are under broad pressure—this would be the worst scenario.
And then there’s the super surprise: no rate hike, haha—its probability is extremely small, but it’s not zero. What if it happens? Respect the market.
Resistance above: $77,000 → $79,000
Support below: $75,000 → $73,000 → $71,000$BTC
As a smart little investor, tonight before the 2:00 a.m. decision comes out, you’d better not move. After the decision, watch the wording in Powell’s speech—if it’s dovish, wait for the rebound to hold steady at $77,000 before considering going short; if it’s hawkish, wait until around $73,000 before considering going long. Wait on both sides; don’t bet on direction.
Altcoins will also swing violently—be careful!
The market already prices in a 92% chance of a rate hike. If Powell says, "This is a one-time, data-dependent adjustment and we don’t assume a path"
that 92% hike probability has already made the market drop by 7%. The inverse of "buy expectations, sell facts"—"sell expectations, buy facts"—is more likely to happen.
BTC short-term rationale for rebounding to $77,000–$79,000: uncertainty is removed + it already fell too much and needs to be repaired, but after the rebound it will still likely trade in a $75,000–$77,000 range, because the hike itself is a tangible negative.
If Powell says, "This isn’t the last time"
and if he also hints that there will be another hike in November or December, the dot plot shifts higher:
If BTC falls to $71,000–$73,000, Treasury yields keep surging, the dollar strengthens, and risk assets are under broad pressure—this would be the worst scenario.
And then there’s the super surprise: no rate hike, haha—its probability is extremely small, but it’s not zero. What if it happens? Respect the market.
Resistance above: $77,000 → $79,000
Support below: $75,000 → $73,000 → $71,000$BTC
