Has the Fed rate hike already become a done deal?
The answer is increasingly pointing to “yes.”
Just today, the Fed’s interest rate decision is about to be released, and the market has already been pricing in a rate hike expectation.
According to the latest market pricing, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September is already above 90%. A Reuters survey shows that economists broadly expect the Fed to raise rates this time, and some institutions also expect further hikes before the end of the year.
Why has the market suddenly shifted to “rate-hike trading”?
At the core is this:
Inflation pressure + oil prices rising + higher U.S. Treasury yields
Right now, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury is already nearing—or briefly crossing—5%, while oil prices are also staying elevated, putting the Fed under even greater inflation pressure.
But what’s really worth paying attention to isn’t whether it will be 25 basis points tonight.
It’s this👇
After the hike, will the Fed signal that it will continue to raise rates?
If it’s only a single hike, the market may quickly digest it;
If the dot plot and the chair’s remarks are both on the hawkish side, then global liquidity expectations could tighten further.
For BTC, this is the variable that matters more.
Tonight watch interest rates, tomorrow watch Powell, and then look to BTC.
The market isn’t really trading just a single rate hike—it’s trading the future path of rates.
#美联储何时降息？ #加息 #BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局
The answer is increasingly pointing to “yes.”
Just today, the Fed’s interest rate decision is about to be released, and the market has already been pricing in a rate hike expectation.
According to the latest market pricing, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September is already above 90%. A Reuters survey shows that economists broadly expect the Fed to raise rates this time, and some institutions also expect further hikes before the end of the year.
Why has the market suddenly shifted to “rate-hike trading”?
At the core is this:
Inflation pressure + oil prices rising + higher U.S. Treasury yields
Right now, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury is already nearing—or briefly crossing—5%, while oil prices are also staying elevated, putting the Fed under even greater inflation pressure.
But what’s really worth paying attention to isn’t whether it will be 25 basis points tonight.
It’s this👇
After the hike, will the Fed signal that it will continue to raise rates?
If it’s only a single hike, the market may quickly digest it;
If the dot plot and the chair’s remarks are both on the hawkish side, then global liquidity expectations could tighten further.
For BTC, this is the variable that matters more.
Tonight watch interest rates, tomorrow watch Powell, and then look to BTC.
The market isn’t really trading just a single rate hike—it’s trading the future path of rates.
#美联储何时降息？ #加息 #BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局