灼见

Crude Oil Rises—Why Is Gold Under Pressure Instead?

Recently, the market has been influenced at the same time by geopolitical risks, energy prices, and expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

At present, Brent crude is around $107, while WTI is around $105. Oil prices have remained at elevated levels. What the market is most worried about is not crude oil itself, but its impact on inflation expectations.

The logic is simple:

Oil prices rise → inflation pressure increases → the Fed’s room to cut rates is constrained → U.S. Treasury yields rise → gold comes under pressure.

So right now, gold is being pulled by two forces:

On one hand, safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical conditions supports gold;

On the other hand, higher oil prices boost inflation and rate-expectation pressures that suppress gold.

That’s also why you can’t simply understand it as:

“Geopolitical risk rises = gold must rise.”

In reality, gold’s short-term price action still depends on the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.

Currently, the 10-year Treasury yield is already around 5%. If yields continue to move higher, gold’s short-term downside pressure could increase further.

Next, I will focus on three variables:

First, crude oil.

If oil prices keep rising quickly, inflation expectations may heat up further.

Second, Treasury yields.

If the 10-year yield keeps moving higher, gold may continue to be weighed down.

Third, the Federal Reserve.

Today’s FOMC rate decision is only the first step; more important is the policy guidance/signals after the meeting.

If the Fed releases more hawkish signals:

A stronger dollar and firmer yields → gold faces pressure.

If the policy statement is not as hawkish as the market expected:

Yields fall back → gold receives support.

So my view on gold now won’t be based solely on geopolitical news.

Crude oil determines inflation expectations, interest rates determine the cost of capital, and risk-off/safe-haven sentiment determines how much support is underneath gold.

Only when all three factors move at the same time is the key to understanding this round of the gold market.
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Combat power is still recovering. Number 12 clears number 11 alone—I'll be back to stream once I'm recovered, brothers. (ps: The estimated stream times are still the old schedule: 7 AM, 3 PM for event contracts, and 10 PM for perpetual contracts.)

$Hawk 佛 only guides those who are destined/“fated” to it! #Hawk doesn’t expect everyone to understand it or be able to hold onto it!
#Hawk only guides those who have wisdom and are worthy of it❗️

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On September 17, the crypto industry saw multiple highly关注able sector updates and events. The core news mainly centered on regulatory roundtables, traditional financial giants entering the space, and industry summits, among other topics:
1. The U.S. SEC holds a 24-hour on-chain stock trading roundtable
On September 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hosted an important roundtable on “24-hour on-chain stock trading.” The meeting invited traditional financial giants such as BlackRock, Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, and Robinhood, along with crypto industry participants and institutions.
Key agenda: The meeting aims to discuss the rule framework for enabling U.S. equities to settle on-chain 24/7.
Technology route competition: The market is currently focused on which blockchain—Ethereum or Solana—will take on the role of the primary underlying settlement infrastructure. Solana holds an advantage in terms of tokenized U.S. stock volume and low fees, while Ethereum is favored by traditional finance due to its deep institutional compliance foundation (such as BlackRock’s BUIDL fund).
2. The Fourth U.S. Crypto Banking, Compliance & Stablecoin Summit (CBC Summit USA) kicks off
The 4th annual CBC Summit USA was held on September 17 at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.
Main focus: This summit brings together senior executives, regulators, and lawmakers across the industry. Key topics include crypto banking services, compliance frameworks, stablecoin development, and the deep integration of traditional finance with Web3.
3. Deeper cooperation between traditional industries and Web3 infrastructure
Hyundai explores the Avalanche ecosystem: After successfully completing a pilot project, Hyundai is considering further expanding its related business and applications on the Avalanche (Avalanche Protocol) blockchain.
Circle Arc mainnet goes live: Stablecoin issuer Circle’s Arc mainnet recently launched and has introduced support from payment giants such as Visa and Mastercard, injecting new momentum into the Web3 payments sector.
Overall, the Web3 industry updates on September 17 show that traditional financial regulators and Wall Street capital are accelerating the process of bringing assets on-chain and strengthening compliance.
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Riding the waves to迎光, embarking on new horizons, together we reach far, and open a brilliant new chapter.
Ride the waves, embrace light, and stride toward a brilliant future.

🚀 ETF Store CEO: The Crypto Future Isn’t Determined by a Single Bill!
The “Clarity Act” will affect market sentiment for crypto, but it isn’t the only variable that determines the industry’s future.
ETF Store CEO Nate Geraci says:
Even if the “Clarity Act” can’t secure enough votes this week to move forward, the crypto industry’s progress won’t come to a halt.
The reason is simple—
The pace of market innovation is always faster than the pace of regulatory legislation.
Under the Trump administration’s environment, the SEC and CFTC may still use existing regulatory authority to drive the digital asset industry forward.
The real force that will change the financial system comes not only from policy documents, but from:
✅ Institutional capital continuing to flow in
✅ The capital bridge created by BTC ETFs
✅ Upgrades to on-chain financial infrastructure
✅ AI × Web3 fusion and innovation
✅ The global trend toward digitizing assets
The “Clarity Act” is more like an “accelerator” — boosting market confidence and helping the industry develop more smoothly.
But Crypto’s big-picture trajectory won’t pause because of a single bill.
As traditional finance gradually embraces blockchain, the upgrade to the future financial system may already be quietly underway.
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Watching others eat meat～#Zcash上涨6%

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Are you on board?

It isn’t a flood of panic to raise interest rates, but it will change the price of capital and the ranking of assets.

In a low-interest-rate environment, many assets can be supported by liquidity; once rates rise, the market will evaluate profits, valuations, and risks more seriously. For investors, what truly matters isn’t predicting every rate hike, but assessing whether the interest-rate core will remain higher for the long term—and whether corporate earnings can absorb the increase in funding costs.

The Fed hikes rates,
US stocks fall,
Treasury yields are still at high levels.
And somehow BTC still didn’t give the bears a clean knockout 😂
$75,000 gets dumped, then it turns right around and pokes back up to $76,000.
The more times the market is obvious enough for everyone to understand, the more likely surprises are.
Drop “888” in the comments; sis, send a few red packets to calm the nerves.
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Combat power is still recovering. Number 12 clears number 11 alone—I'll be back to stream once I'm recovered, brothers. (ps: The estimated stream times are still the old schedule: 7 AM, 3 PM for event contracts, and 10 PM for perpetual contracts.)

Wishing you good health, good luck, and plenty of green candles!
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All the good things in this world
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$LTC I don’t care whether you raise rates or whatever—if the bulls are coming, then whatever bad news there is won’t matter. Just do it, brothers—more of it!