Tonight’s macro drama: Warsh takes the stage—are we heading for a directional choice or a turning point?
The early-morning market action is destined to be anything but calm.
The interest-rate decision and dot plot at 02:00 on September 17 are just “appetizers.” What will truly determine the macro storyline for the coming quarters is the news conference by <t-2/> at 02:30 on September 17—Warsh’s press conference.
The market isn’t afraid of the outcome; it’s afraid of the mismatch versus expectations. Any single line in the Q&A, like a too-chi “push-and-turn” maneuver, could make the price swing instantly up and down—wide-range wicks and needles.
The script tonight will most likely be: data comes out first and sweeps for losses, and the speech period sets the direction.
No blind guessing: don’t use real money to bet on that 50% left-side win rate.
The rate-hike probability from the Federal Reserve has also swung just as sharply. From a 50/50 split in late August to as high as a 92% expectation for a rate hike now.
The early-morning market action is destined to be anything but calm.
The interest-rate decision and dot plot at 02:00 on September 17 are just “appetizers.” What will truly determine the macro storyline for the coming quarters is the news conference by <t-2/> at 02:30 on September 17—Warsh’s press conference.
The market isn’t afraid of the outcome; it’s afraid of the mismatch versus expectations. Any single line in the Q&A, like a too-chi “push-and-turn” maneuver, could make the price swing instantly up and down—wide-range wicks and needles.
The script tonight will most likely be: data comes out first and sweeps for losses, and the speech period sets the direction.
No blind guessing: don’t use real money to bet on that 50% left-side win rate.
The rate-hike probability from the Federal Reserve has also swung just as sharply. From a 50/50 split in late August to as high as a 92% expectation for a rate hike now.
