The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be released in a few hours (Beijing time early morning at 2:00 a.m.). Market hawkish sentiment is rapidly rising— the probability of this rate hike of 25 basis points has jumped from around 58% a few weeks ago to 91%. The reason is that in August, the core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month; although this matches expectations, inflation persistence remains stubborn, giving the Fed justification to keep tightening. If implemented, the federal funds rate target range will rise to 3.75%-4.00%, the highest level in this cycle.
Risk assets are already under pressure: $BTC hours fall 2.15% to $75,910, while $ETH ’s decline is even deeper, down 3.69% to $2,404. In contrast, the gold token $PAXG rose slightly against the tide, up 0.8% to $4,335—safe-haven capital flows are clearly evident.
On the macro front, what needs caution is that if Powell signals at the press conference that the “tightening cycle has not ended,” expectations for tighter liquidity will further suppress risk appetite. In the near term, $BTC may be hard to call optimistic. It’s advisable to closely monitor changes in the wording after the decision and not to blindly buy the dip. #FedRateWatch
Risk assets are already under pressure: $BTC hours fall 2.15% to $75,910, while $ETH ’s decline is even deeper, down 3.69% to $2,404. In contrast, the gold token $PAXG rose slightly against the tide, up 0.8% to $4,335—safe-haven capital flows are clearly evident.
On the macro front, what needs caution is that if Powell signals at the press conference that the “tightening cycle has not ended,” expectations for tighter liquidity will further suppress risk appetite. In the near term, $BTC may be hard to call optimistic. It’s advisable to closely monitor changes in the wording after the decision and not to blindly buy the dip. #FedRateWatch
