#美联储加息是否已成定局
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month. The market is betting that a 25-basis-point rate hike this week will be nearly 90%. I think a rate hike is basically a done deal, but I’m more inclined to see a “hike and then look at the data,” not necessarily the starting point for multiple hikes.
Once a rate hike is implemented: BTC’s near-term liquidity will face pressure. The bearish impact is to “sell the news,” then probe and recover—neutral/hold for now. Tech stock valuations will be hit the most. Gold has a safe-haven and anti-inflation logic, so it should be relatively more resilient.
Position strategy: I won’t bet on the direction overnight. I’ll stay in cash (no BTC position) and wait for an opportunity. I won’t change my ETH core position—keeping a low profile. Fully close all futures contracts. Posting results: I’m staying in cash and observing, saving the “ammo” for when it materializes. Have everyone’s positions been reduced? BTC, ETH
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month. The market is betting that a 25-basis-point rate hike this week will be nearly 90%. I think a rate hike is basically a done deal, but I’m more inclined to see a “hike and then look at the data,” not necessarily the starting point for multiple hikes.
Once a rate hike is implemented: BTC’s near-term liquidity will face pressure. The bearish impact is to “sell the news,” then probe and recover—neutral/hold for now. Tech stock valuations will be hit the most. Gold has a safe-haven and anti-inflation logic, so it should be relatively more resilient.
Position strategy: I won’t bet on the direction overnight. I’ll stay in cash (no BTC position) and wait for an opportunity. I won’t change my ETH core position—keeping a low profile. Fully close all futures contracts. Posting results: I’m staying in cash and observing, saving the “ammo” for when it materializes. Have everyone’s positions been reduced? BTC, ETH