September 16 morning briefing | Clarity Act rejected by the Senate, 120,000 liquidated; 76,000 is the last line of defense before the FOMC

September 16 morning briefing | Clarity Act rejected by the Senate, 120,000 liquidated; 76,000 is the last line of defense before the FOMC
First check the priceBTC current price is around 76,200–76,600. As soon as news broke early this morning that the Clarity Act was rejected by the Senate, Bitcoin plunged more than 5% directly to 74,965, the lowest since June. It then rebounded slightly back above 76,000 and is currently hovering around 76,200. It’s down more than 3% over the past 24 hours.
ETH once crashed more than 8% to around 2,406. XRP fell more than 10%, SOL dropped more than 5%, and Dogecoin, ZEC, and HYPE fell more than 4%.
I watched the entire process closely on the screen last night. When the Senate vote result came out at 3:00 a.m., BTC was above 77,000. Within 20 minutes, it broke through 76,000 and 75,500, hitting a low of 74,965. 120,000 people were liquidated, with $670 million wiped out. This market never gives you time to react.
Probability assessment: I think the downside probability is slightly higher. Rejection of the Clarity Act is a material negative. The probability of an FOMC rate hike tonight is 90% or higher. 76,000 can hold up once, but not the second time.
Today’s key variables: ① FOMC rate decision (tonight at 2:00 a.m.) — probability of a 25-bp hike above 90%, and Waller’s first press conference ② Ongoing digestion of the Clarity Act rejection ③ Whether 76,000 can hold
Why do I think the downside probability is higher? Three reasons:First, the Clarity Act was rejected— the most systemic attempt at legislation for the crypto industry has failed.
In U.S. Eastern Time on September 15, the U.S. Senate rejected the (Digital Assets Market Structure Clarity Act) advancement motion 50-49. This is far below the 60 votes required to overcome procedural obstacles.
Four Republican senators switched sides and joined the Democrats, voting against the bill. The Democrats’ cited reason is that the bill contains a provision about conflicts of interest tied to Trump’s crypto business interests.
The Senate’s crypto industry leading figure, Lummis, said (verbatim): “If the procedural vote fails, it’s all over.” The bill aims to provide a clear regulatory framework for banks, broker-dealers, and asset managers to participate in digital-asset trading. If the bill is rejected, it means the regulatory vacuum period for the crypto industry will be pushed back by at least another year.
Second, tonight’s FOMC decision: rate-hike odds above 90%.
The CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25-bp rate hike in September has reached 87.3%-94.5%, up from just 33% a month ago. If the hike is carried out, it will be the Fed’s first increase in policy rate since July 2023—and also the first rate decision since Chair Waller took office in May. 
The current target range for the federal funds rate is 3.50%-3.75%, and the market expects it to rise to 3.75%-4.00%. At the July FOMC meeting, three regional Fed presidents already voted in favor of a hike—hawkish voices were not suddenly showing up.
Natixis economists expect Waller is likely to act “hawkishly but communicate cautiously”—describing rate hikes as an independent move to bring inflation back to target, avoiding being interpreted by the market as a commitment to further action. But this communication strategy is a double-edged sword: saying too little sparks panic; saying too much leads to excessive repricing by the market.
Third, oil breaks above $108 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touches 5%—a double squeeze.
Brent crude oil closed at $108.75 on September 15. U.S. diesel futures prices hit a historical high. WTI crude futures rose more than 4% to break above $106. With the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea crises overlapping, Bernstein warned Brent crude could rise further to a $120-$150 range.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields briefly rose to 5.04%, the highest since 2007. A high-rate environment directly increases the opportunity cost of holding BTC. Oil pushing inflation and Treasury yields compressing valuations—both lines are tightening at the same time.
Sector 1: Macro news backdropThis week’s data calendar: at 2:00 a.m. tonight, the FOMC rate decision; at 2:30 a.m., Waller’s press conference. This is the only and biggest variable of the week.
1. The Fed: Rate-hike odds above 90%, Waller’s first big test at the FOMCThe FOMC meeting will be held on September 15-16. The rate decision will be released at 14:00 Eastern Time on September 16 (2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17). Waller will hold his first post-assumption press conference on monetary policy at 14:30.
Core background: August PPI year-over-year rose 5.4%, and August core CPI month-over-month rose 0.3%, both above expectations. After Brent crude broke above $100, energy prices transmitted into transport, logistics, and food prices—exactly the “second-round effects” the Fed is concerned about. At Jackson Hole late August, Waller explicitly said the inflation data had not shown that underlying trends were improving.
The market is currently debating three main scenarios: The baseline is a 25-bp hike paired with neutral language; a lower-odds “unexpected hold” is less likely but would diverge significantly from market pricing; the more hawkish scenario is Waller signaling cumulative 50 bp of hikes by year-end.
2. Geopolitics: The Oman meeting is postponed; oil surges toward $108The Holmuza shipping safety conference originally planned for September 14 between Iran and Gulf countries in Oman has been postponed. Saudi Arabia proposed amendments to the Oman-Iran plan, and disagreements within the GCC have surfaced. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright also warned the market not to assume negotiations will break through.
Kpler data shows that on Monday, only 4 dry-bulk vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, down further from 10 the previous day. Escalation in the Yemen conflict has sharply reduced crude oil transit volumes in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Oil prices keep surging. WTI’s October contract jumped 4.38% to break above $106; Brent’s November contract rose 2.9% to break above $106, both reaching April highs. U.S. diesel futures settlement price hit a record high. A Nomura strategist warned that oil has become a “hot potato,” and the market has started pricing in the possibility of the U.S. government banning crude oil exports.
3. Traditional markets: U.S. stocks hit new lows since August; crypto-related stocks lead the declineOvernight, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower together. The S&P 500 fell 0.45% to a new closing low since August; the Dow fell 0.63%; and the Nasdaq fell 0.78%. SpaceX fell more than 3%, Amazon fell more than 2%, and Microsoft and Google fell more than 1%.
Crypto-related stocks are hit hardest. Circle crashed more than 11%, Coinbase fell more than 10%, Bitmine dropped more than 8%, Strategy fell over 5%, and Robinhood fell over 3%.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly touched 5.04%, the highest since 2007.
Liquidity conditionsETF: On September 15, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs had net outflows of $450.4 million, the largest single-day redemptions in about three months since June 25. No product recorded inflows that day.
Fidelity’s FBTC had net outflows of 214.8 million (largest), BlackRock’s IBIT outflow 161.7 million, Grayscale’s GBTC outflow 44.1 million, ARKB outflow 17.4 million, BITB outflow 12.4 million.
From September 1 to 15, Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of only $16.8 million, down sharply from August’s $3.539 billion. A Wintermute OTC trader noted this is the first time since June that Bitcoin ETFs have recorded monthly net outflows.
Liquidations: In the past 24 hours, there were 115,716 liquidations globally, totaling $670 million. Long liquidations were $570 million.
Binance perpetuals activity: In the last 15 minutes, the order-book 5-level buy/sell depth ratio for BTC is only 0.17. Total sell orders are 0.2482 BTC—about 6 times the total buy orders of 0.0414 BTC. A large sell wall of 0.165 BTC formed at $75,941, representing 66.5% of the total sell volume in the top 5 levels, creating a clear near-term pressure level.
Capital flows: Within crypto—ETH and SOL fall more than BTC, and capital exits broadly; across assets—crypto concept stocks crash hard, Circle and Coinbase fall more than 10%; stablecoins—under risk-off sentiment, funds flow to the U.S. dollar.
Institutional & capital flows① A certain large whale with $52.35 million long BTC, ETH, and ZEC gets pulled back, floating loss of $1.42 million
According to on-chain analysts’ monitoring, at around 2:45 a.m. today, address 0x970…62a93 opened a long position with a notional value of about $52.35 million in an uptrend, including 650 BTC, 500 ETH, and 900 ZEC. After opening, the market kept falling. The address closed its ETH and ZEC longs, reduced 50 BTC, and exited with a loss of about $150,000. It still holds 600 BTC. The entry price was $78,663.8, and the current floating loss is about $1.42 million.
② A certain large whale built a $54 million empty short position before the Clarity Act vote
In derivatives, a certain large whale established a nominal BTC short position worth about $54 million a few hours before the Clarity Act vote. The timing is worth noting—someone bet on the rejection outcome before the vote.
③ BlackRock IBIT bought $1.08 billion worth of shares in the past 20 days, but yesterday saw outflows of $161.7 million.
Arkham monitoring shows that BlackRock’s IBIT bought $1.08 billion worth of Bitcoin over the past 20 days, with inflows on 7 of those days. Holdings rose to about 785,000 BTC, and assets under management surpassed $60 billion. But yesterday saw a single-day outflow of $161.7 million—coins bought in the prior 20 days were largely sold back in one day (15%).
④ Santiment: Addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC are reducing holdings
Santiment’s holder distribution data shows that addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have recently shown signs of reducing holdings. Mid- to large-sized holders are cutting positions, in sync with ETF outflows.
Market sentiment / hot direction① The Clarity Act was rejected—crypto industry regulatory legislation is delayed by at least another year
The Senate rejected the motion to advance the Clarity Act 50-49. Four Republican senators switched sides and voted against it with the Democrats. Democrats cited controversy over a provision in the bill involving conflicts of interest tied to Trump’s crypto business interests. Lummis said, “It’s all over.” Rejection of the bill implies the regulatory vacuum for crypto will be delayed by at least another year, and the industry faces greater uncertainty in compliance pathways, capital allocation, and the pace of institutionalization.
Mapping to BTC: Short term— the market has already priced this negative news with a 5% crash. Medium term— after the bill is rejected, rule-making by the SEC and CFTC will become the main regulatory path. Some in Wall Street believe that even if Congress fails to pass a clear bill, agency rules will still provide guidance for investment institutions. But between “guidance” and “law,” there’s an entire Congress.
② Tonight’s FOMC decision—Waller’s first rate-setting event
Tonight at 2:00 a.m. the rate decision will be released; at 2:30 a.m., Waller’s press conference. This is Waller’s first rate decision since taking office in May, and the first rate hike by the Fed since July 2023. The market focus is not only on the hike itself, but on how Waller expresses the policy intent. In his first appearance after the July meeting, he was criticized for failing to clearly explain the decision to keep rates unchanged, which triggered a jump in long-end Treasury yields.
Sector 2: TechnicalsBTC: Market sentiment fell straight from fear into extreme fear. On the 4-hour timeframe, price dropped from around 77,920 in the early morning all the way to 74,965; the 24-hour drop is 2.47%. It has since rebounded to around 76,200 for a weak consolidation. The 1-hour MA has turned bearish, and the Bollinger Bands show one-way downward dispersion—no signs of bearish trend exhaustion yet. ADX is as high as 43.8, confirming strong momentum in the short-term downtrend; daily ADX at 44.7 suggests the medium- to long-term also remains in a strong downtrend. Order-book selling pressure is concentrated: the top-5 level buy/sell depth ratio is only 0.17. 76,500-77,000 above is the first major hurdle—only by reclaiming it can downside pressure ease. 74,965 below is the 24-hour low—breaking it may trigger programmed selling. More importantly, support in the 72,000-70,000 area must not be broken. The overall structure is bearish; before the FOMC decision, direction won’t be clear.
ETH: Plunges more than 8% to around 2,406, falling far more than BTC. The ETH/BTC ratio is weakening, and capital is exiting across the board. [Resistance is at 2,500-2,550 above; support is at 2,350-2,400 below.]
SOL: Drops more than 5%, weaker than BTC. Resistance is at 105-108 above; support is at 95-98 below.
Nasdaq 100: Down 0.78% overnight; S&P 500 hits a new low since August.
S&P 500: Down 0.45%, setting a new closing low since August.
Gold: Risk-off demand and rate-hike expectations are pulling in opposite directions—direction is unclear.
Crude oil: WTI breaks above $106; Brent rises to $108.75; diesel futures set a historical high.
Today’s outlookCore view: I think the downside probability is slightly higher. The Clarity Act being rejected is a substantial negative. The probability of an FOMC rate hike tonight is over 90%. 76,000 can withstand one hit, but not a second.
Three scenarios:
Scenario 1 (highest probability, about 45%): The FOMC delivers a 25-bp hike, Waller’s wording is relatively neutral, and the market sees a “sell-the-news, bad-news-is-over” style rebound. BTC violently whipsaws between 74,500 and 77,000, with the largest swings around the early-morning decision.
Scenario 2 (about 30%): The FOMC hikes 25 bp and Waller releases signals of further hikes; BTC breaks below 74,965 and falls to 73,500 or even 72,000. This is the worst-case scenario, but given the 90% probability of a hike, it must be considered.
Scenario 3 (about 25%): An unexpected hold or Waller’s wording is clearly more dovish; BTC rebounds to 77,000-78,000. Probability is not high, but because the gap versus market pricing is large, if it happens shorts could be squeezed violently.
Key variables: Tonight at 2:00 a.m. the FOMC rate decision + 2:30 a.m. Waller’s press conference. The hike itself has already been priced in. Waller’s wording is the real variable. If he describes the hike as an “independent move” rather than the beginning of a rate-hike cycle, the market may breathe easier; if he hints that hikes will continue, 72,000 may not hold.
Trading idea (for entertainment only, not investment advice)My approach: I won’t move until the FOMC outcome is out. There’s a buy wall near 76,000, but with the Clarity Act rejected + a 90% rate-hike probability + $450 million of ETF outflows—three negatives stacked together. Bottom-fishing is like picking up coins in front of a bulldozer.
Short idea (more on the right side): If BTC rebounds to 76,500-77,000 with clearly declining volume and can’t push higher, try a small short position. Stop-loss: 77,500. Targets: 75,000-74,500.
Go-long idea (more on the left side, high risk): If BTC pulls back to 74,500-75,000 without breaking and shows a volume-backed stabilization signal, try a small long position. Stop-loss: 73,500. Targets: 76,500-77,000.
Risk warning: Tonight’s FOMC is the only and biggest variable of the week. A 25-bp hike has already been fully priced in. If Waller’s wording is more hawkish than expected, BTC could break below $74,965 and run toward 72,000. If the language is more dovish, shorts could get squeezed hard. Until the decision comes out, don’t go heavy and don’t gamble on direction.
In one sentence:
Clarity Act rejected: 120,000 liquidations, ETF outflows of $450 million, with a 90% probability of an FOMC hike pressuring the market. 76,000 is the last line of defense before tonight’s decision. It can withstand one hit, but not the second.
Revere the market—tell the truth. Let’s talk in the comments.