Tonight the Fed is going to court again. The market has already written the script in advance.
The 25-basis-point move has already been priced in quite a bit, so if it actually happens, it may not cause much damage.
What really matters is what old Powell will do tonight—hand out candy or a blade.
If after a rate hike the Fed keeps sounding hawkish, then once the US dollar and US Treasury yields lift their heads, BTC and US stocks will probably have to collectively cry in pain again. Gold will also have to take cues from real interest rates.
If the rate hike is delivered but the tone of the remarks isn’t so aggressive, the market could directly stage a play where a bad headline becomes good news—maybe it gets sold off first and then pulled back. That’s not impossible either.
If you want to get rich quick, you should go all-in early and try to guess the answer… but it could just as easily make you go broke.
If you want stability, first look at what rates decide, then look at the dot plot, and finally wait for Powell’s speech.
After all, the most classic Fed meeting plot is: you think the answer is A, but they insist on giving you a C.
#美联储利率决定今晚来袭
The 25-basis-point move has already been priced in quite a bit, so if it actually happens, it may not cause much damage.
What really matters is what old Powell will do tonight—hand out candy or a blade.
If after a rate hike the Fed keeps sounding hawkish, then once the US dollar and US Treasury yields lift their heads, BTC and US stocks will probably have to collectively cry in pain again. Gold will also have to take cues from real interest rates.
If the rate hike is delivered but the tone of the remarks isn’t so aggressive, the market could directly stage a play where a bad headline becomes good news—maybe it gets sold off first and then pulled back. That’s not impossible either.
If you want to get rich quick, you should go all-in early and try to guess the answer… but it could just as easily make you go broke.
If you want stability, first look at what rates decide, then look at the dot plot, and finally wait for Powell’s speech.
After all, the most classic Fed meeting plot is: you think the answer is A, but they insist on giving you a C.
#美联储利率决定今晚来袭
