$ETH U.S. Treasuries have suddenly shown "extreme bearishness"! A rate hike is basically locked in, and the idea remains to short on rebounds!
Brothers, first, let’s look at a major piece of news: short positions in the U.S. Treasury market are accumulating at the fastest pace since the beginning of 2025, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to its highest level since 2007 and the 2-year touching a peak since 2024. Market pricing shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike tonight has already exceeded 90%! JPMorgan’s client survey also shows short positions jumped 10 percentage points in a single week, with the pace of adding shorts the fastest since the beginning of 2025. Citi strategists bluntly said that the current short positioning is "extreme" from a tactical perspective.
August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, directly breaking through the psychological 0.2% line. Big banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan collectively changed their stance within a week, flipping from "standing pat" to "September rate hike." At tonight’s policy meeting, a rate hike is almost a sure thing.
But the real focus tonight is not whether there will be a hike, but what happens after the hike.
This is very likely not a one-off move, but the beginning of a new tightening cycle. Don’t think that once the hike is announced, the bad news is fully priced in; quite the opposite, this could be the start of consecutive hikes. The fact that U.S. Treasury shorts are so extreme shows that big money is already betting in advance on continued tightening.
Yesterday Sha Ge called for shorting on rebounds all day. How many people chasing the rally got wrecked in the waterfall move? Today’s idea remains unchanged: any rebound is a short, don’t rush to bottom-fish, and definitely don’t trade against the trend! Above, resistance at 2520-2540 is where weakness on the rise signals a good short entry. Below, first look at 2450, and if that breaks, then 2400. Keep your risk controls in place, wait for the policy decision to be released, and follow the main trend!
#美联储加息是否已成定局
Brothers, first, let’s look at a major piece of news: short positions in the U.S. Treasury market are accumulating at the fastest pace since the beginning of 2025, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to its highest level since 2007 and the 2-year touching a peak since 2024. Market pricing shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike tonight has already exceeded 90%! JPMorgan’s client survey also shows short positions jumped 10 percentage points in a single week, with the pace of adding shorts the fastest since the beginning of 2025. Citi strategists bluntly said that the current short positioning is "extreme" from a tactical perspective.
August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, directly breaking through the psychological 0.2% line. Big banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan collectively changed their stance within a week, flipping from "standing pat" to "September rate hike." At tonight’s policy meeting, a rate hike is almost a sure thing.
But the real focus tonight is not whether there will be a hike, but what happens after the hike.
This is very likely not a one-off move, but the beginning of a new tightening cycle. Don’t think that once the hike is announced, the bad news is fully priced in; quite the opposite, this could be the start of consecutive hikes. The fact that U.S. Treasury shorts are so extreme shows that big money is already betting in advance on continued tightening.
Yesterday Sha Ge called for shorting on rebounds all day. How many people chasing the rally got wrecked in the waterfall move? Today’s idea remains unchanged: any rebound is a short, don’t rush to bottom-fish, and definitely don’t trade against the trend! Above, resistance at 2520-2540 is where weakness on the rise signals a good short entry. Below, first look at 2450, and if that breaks, then 2400. Keep your risk controls in place, wait for the policy decision to be released, and follow the main trend!
#美联储加息是否已成定局
