Tonight’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision—hikes are basically a sure thing. The market has priced in a probability of around 90%. The August core CPI month-on-month rose to 0.3%, clearly surpassing the psychological threshold of 0.2%. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have both changed their stance within the week, moving from “hold steady” to “a rate hike in September.” But I think the real focus tonight isn’t whether they hike—it’s what happens after the hike. This is very likely not a one-off, but the starting point for a new round of tightening.
In the crypto market, I’ve been bearish these past few days, and it’s been consistently working out. BTC has been grinding around the 76,000 level repeatedly, while ETH has directly fallen below 2,400, with a larger drawdown than BTC. A rate hike being carried out is itself a signal of tighter liquidity. If the dot plot also releases the message that another increase could come within the year, then if BTC effectively breaks below 76,000, the next level to watch would be 74,000 to 75,000. And ETH doesn’t need to be said further—high-beta assets tend to move inversely in a tightening environment.
As for US stocks and gold, I’m also bearish. CICC says short-term disruptions in US stocks provide a better entry point, which is said from a buyer’s perspective. But on the trading side, the initial valuation pressure from a rate hike is real—especially for rate-sensitive sectors like the Nasdaq. Gold has already fallen to around 4,253 and hit a one-month low. As real interest rates move higher, the opportunity cost of holding gold rises as well. TD Securities’ downside target is 4,200.
My personal view: the rate hike being implemented isn’t “bad news exhausted”; it’s the beginning of a sequence of hikes. Don’t rush to bottom-fish. And don’t go against the market. Stay mainly bearish and follow the big trend.
#美联储加息是否已成定局
In the crypto market, I’ve been bearish these past few days, and it’s been consistently working out. BTC has been grinding around the 76,000 level repeatedly, while ETH has directly fallen below 2,400, with a larger drawdown than BTC. A rate hike being carried out is itself a signal of tighter liquidity. If the dot plot also releases the message that another increase could come within the year, then if BTC effectively breaks below 76,000, the next level to watch would be 74,000 to 75,000. And ETH doesn’t need to be said further—high-beta assets tend to move inversely in a tightening environment.
As for US stocks and gold, I’m also bearish. CICC says short-term disruptions in US stocks provide a better entry point, which is said from a buyer’s perspective. But on the trading side, the initial valuation pressure from a rate hike is real—especially for rate-sensitive sectors like the Nasdaq. Gold has already fallen to around 4,253 and hit a one-month low. As real interest rates move higher, the opportunity cost of holding gold rises as well. TD Securities’ downside target is 4,200.
My personal view: the rate hike being implemented isn’t “bad news exhausted”; it’s the beginning of a sequence of hikes. Don’t rush to bottom-fish. And don’t go against the market. Stay mainly bearish and follow the big trend.
#美联储加息是否已成定局
